Average
prices actually rose 0.5 per cent through October according to the
building society but the underlying trend is for a softening in prices
and activity.
“A
variety of indicators suggest that the market has lost momentum. The
number of mortgages approved for house purchase in September was almost
20 per cent below the level prevailing at the start of the year. Some
forward looking indicators, such as new buyer enquiries, suggest that
activity may soften further in the near term, especially in London”
warns Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner.
The
society warns that the majority of mortgages held on residential
properties - around 60 per cent - is now on variable interest rates.
This is a marked shift from the pre-crisis period where the proportion
of mortgages on variable rates was 38 per cent.
And
even those mortgages which are fixed are, in many cases, fixed only for
relatively short time periods - 62 per cent are for two years and
around 30 per cent for five years.
This
means the market may be susceptible to interest rate rises, when they
come, and this may in turn act as a deterrent to house moving for
existing owners or the decisions of first time buyers to commit to
purchase.
“Nevertheless,
the market should be able to cope with higher interest rates, provided
the increase is gradual and the economy and the labour market remain in
good shape” suggests Gardner.
Guidance
from the Bank of England suggests that the increase in interest rates
is likely to be gradual, and that they are expected to settle at a level
somewhat below the average prevailing before the financial crisis,
which should help ensure borrowing costs remain manageable, he says.
http://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/1543-the-market-s-lost-momentum-says-nationwide