Falling Southampton House Prices - The Winners & Losers

 

The doom and gloom of the national newspaper headlines regarding the UK property market would make you think Armageddon has arrived, this being the second most interesting topic to the Brits (the first being the weather!).

So, what is happening in the British property market? As with most things in life, the devil is in the detail.

2020 and 2021 were exceptional years for the UK Property Market.

In Q4 2020 (Q4 being October, November and December combined), an average of 23,071 properties were sold per week in the UK (sold - as in a sale was agreed and the property went from available to sold subject to contract (STC)).

In Q4 2021, an average of 21,051 properties were sold per week in the UK.

So by the end of week 3 in November 2022, with an average of 19,694 properties per week becoming sold STC, quarter to date ... the housing market doesn't look good. Yet a different story emerges from the Q4 averages for 2016 to 2019.

In Q4 2019, an average of 16,263 properties were sold per week

In Q4 2018, an average of 15,922 properties were sold per week

In Q4 2017, an average of 15,721 properties were sold per week

In Q4 2016, an average of 15,811 properties were sold per week

  

The British property market is only returning to how things were before the first lockdown.

As I have discussed recently in several posts on the Southampton property market in my blog, I do believe the price that will be achieved for Southampton property in 12/16 months will be around 8% to 12% lower than what was being paid for property in the late spring (of 2022). Note I didn’t use the word ‘crash’.

 

Question - Why do the newspapers use the phrase “house price crash”?

Answer - To sell more newspapers!

 

Include the time, policy and efforts that the political parties go to in order keep British house prices on an upwards trajectory to gain votes and you might believe that a fall in house prices is a total catastrophe.

Nothing could be further from the truth for most homeowners and landlords.

Indeed, when you look at house prices without any emotion, when house prices fall — in isolation — more people win than lose.

So, who wins when house prices drop?

 

Let’s say you own a two-bedroom Southampton home worth £250,000. You have an expanding family, and you need a third bedroom.

The three-bedroom home in Southampton you want is £350,000, meaning you need to find £100,000 to trade up. 

If Southampton house prices rose by 10%, get the Champagne on ice as your Southampton two-bedroom home is now worth £275,000. Mind you before you open the fizzy stuff — remember the three-bed you want has also risen 10%, meaning it is now £385,000. If you want to trade up, you need to find £110,000. 

 

Southampton house prices rising has cost you an additional £10,000.

 

On the other side of the coin, what if Southampton house prices fell 10%?

Your two-bedroom home is now only worth £225,000. Catastrophe! Yet wait — the three-bedroom Southampton home you want to move up to is now worth £315,000, meaning you only need to find £90,000 to trade up.

Also, stamp duty, solicitor fees, and estate agent fees tend to be percentage based - thus saving you money.

 

As over 7 out of 10 home movers move up the property ladder, falling

house prices are not necessarily a problem.

Falling Southampton house prices are great for those who want to move up the property ladder and trade up.

 

So, who loses when house prices drop?

The first set of people that lose out are homeowners moving down market. The gap between selling a larger home and buying a smaller one narrows when one moves down market. Given the massive growth in house prices over the many decades those homeowners have been in the property market, it’s tough to see this as a calamity, yet it’s certainly a loss.  

The second set of people that lose out are beneficiaries of the home being sold when a parent/grandparent passes away.

Let us all be honest; I believe there will be little sympathy in the broader community for those first two sets of people for their loss of money.

However, the most exposed (and many people will sympathise with these) are those first-time buyers who bought their first home with a small deposit. If you had just bought your first home for £200,000 with a 5% deposit (so you had a £190,000 mortgage) but Southampton house prices dropped by 10%, you now own a home worth £180,000 (less than the mortgage). Now you are in ‘negative equity’ (as your mortgage is £10,000 more than what the house is worth, i.e. £190k less £180k), which causes you two main problems.

Firstly, when your fixed rate deal ends, most of the time, it is wise to re-mortgage to another rate. However, when you have negative equity, the range of mortgage deals open to you will be minimal, so you will probably have to pay your bank/building society’s quite pricey ‘standard variable rate’.

Secondly, suppose you want to sell your Southampton home. In that case, the price you achieve will not pay off the mortgage, which means you will have to find the difference elsewhere (i.e. a gift/borrowing from your family or selling an asset like a car)—in a nutshell, making a move very difficult.

How many people will be drawn into negative equity if house prices drop 10%?

 

Just 2.9% of homeowners will be in negative equity,

if house prices drop by 10%.

 

Now of course, if you are one of that 2.9%, that will be challenging. Yet, the vast majority of those first-time buyers have been in their homes a year or less, and most first-time buyers only move to their second home after four to six years. Also, they will be fixed-rate mortgages (mostly five-year fixed-rate mortgages), so re-mortgaging won’t be an issue either.

But what would it mean to Southampton house prices if they did drop by 10%?

 

If house prices drop by 10% in the next 12 months in Southampton, that would only bring us back to the house prices being achieved in September 2021.

 

(For all you property stat fans – the average house price in Southampton today is £249,427, whilst back in September 2021, it was £224,854).

Yet what if they dropped by the same percentage (19%) as they did in the Credit Crunch?

 

If house prices dropped by the same percentage as they fell in the Credit Crunch in Southampton, that would only bring us back to the house prices being achieved in June 2019.

And nobody was complaining about those!

Let me get back to the real problem with falling house prices.

When the country’s house prices fall, that tends to correspond with more challenging economic times. Now, because of rising interest rates and inflation, the price people are paying for a Southampton property is lower than one would have paid in the spring (when you were bidding against multiple offers and had to pay top dollar to secure the purchase).

However, during times of falling house prices, that can start to negatively affect the broader British economy. For some strange reason, homeowners tend to spend less because they ‘feel’ less well-off because the value of their home has dropped, and fewer people move home, meaning there is less choice for people to buy. Lenders start to be meaner about lending because they are nervous about arrears and bad debts building up. 

 

2023 will be challenging for many Southampton families, yet …

As we go into recession, the share of homeowners exposed to falling house prices is smaller than in the 2008 Credit Crunch.

·        92.48% of new mortgages taken out in the last four years have been fixed-rate mortgages, compared to 63.08% in the years before the Credit Crunch.

·        In 2008, 45.4% of existing mortgages were 4% above the base rate, today, that is only 2.1%

·        Going into the Credit Crunch, the average mortgage rate homeowners were on was 5.88%, whilst the average rate existing mortgaged homeowners today are on is 2.17%.

Ultimately, unemployment is the main factor of whether this goes from being a possibly benign slow 10% decline to a full-scale crash.

If homeowners keep their jobs, they will keep paying their mortgages. However, (as in the 1988 and 2008 house price crash) if people lose their jobs, mortgages don't tend to get paid, and that is when repossessions increase and forced selling starts to take effect. 

However, looking at the Autumn Statement, the Government have learned the lesson of previous generations and vastly improved the safety net of contributing to people's mortgages. Should someone become unemployed, at the moment, homeowners must wait 39 weeks before the Government will help pay the mortgage (thus increasing their chances of repossession). This will be reduced to 12 weeks in the spring, reducing mortgage repossessions later in 2023/4.

So where does that leave us?

We should be less keen to celebrate ‘house price booms’ throughout the ‘good times’ because the usual ‘house price crashes’ tend to worsen the ‘bad times’.

In its place, we should concentrate on what British society can do to obtain a more stable property market over time. That is a topic for another article in my property blog! (Do send me a message if you want a link to the other articles I write about the Southampton property market).

Final thoughts: the house prices being achieved in late 2021/early 2022 in Southampton will be a distant memory in a year’s time, yet for most people, that is not a bad thing. 2023 will be a challenging year, but don't let the price paid for property by 3.54% of the UK population (the percentage of privately owned houses that will sell next year) affect your outlook and worth as a homeowner/landlord.

These are my thoughts; what are yours?

Southampton Tenants Face Further Rent Hikes, as the Number of Available Rental Homes Drops by 36%

 

• The number of properties available to rent in Southampton has dropped from 3,519 to 2,267 since February 2020.

• The average rent a tenant has had to pay in Southampton has risen from £932 to £1,716 since February 2020.
• 
  
•     Many Southampton landlords have cashed in on the post-lockdown property boom of the last two years and sold their properties to owner-occupiers - not fellow landlords.

• The supply of Southampton rental property isn't near what is needed, which is of benefit to Southampton landlords rather than Southampton renters. 

 

The Southampton rental property shortage is currently very evident. In this article, I will investigate why there is such a significant lack of homes available for rent across Southampton and what it means for buy-to-let investors.

Anybody who enjoys surfing the property portals (Rightmove, Zoopla and On the Market) will have observed an emerging trend that the number of properties available to rent in Southampton has dropped considerably in the last couple of years.

This reduction has been seen all around the UK as well. For example, on 1^st November 2020, there were 372,931 properties to rent on portals. By the 1^st November 2021, that had dropped to 275,650; by the 1^st November 2022, that had fallen to 171,224.

That doesn't mean the number of privately rented homes in the country has dropped by over half. Fewer properties are coming onto the market to rent. I will explain why in this article.

 

For tenants, especially over the last 12 months, it has become progressively more challenging to find a Southampton rental home, thus making the rent they must pay go up. This state of affairs in the property market isn’t showing an indication of getting any easier either, making for a hard time for Southampton renters.

So, what is the reason behind the Southampton rental property shortage, and what does this mean for existing Southampton landlords or those potential investors considering buying a Southampton buy-to-let property soon?

 

Several different components are making the perfect storm in the UK property market.

Firstly, the number of households in the UK.

The UK has not been building enough homes for the last 20 years. I appreciate that parts of Southampton seem like one huge building site, yet as a country, we are woefully undersupplied with property to live in. This has meant house prices continue to rise due to demand. 

The government have known about this issue for decades. The Barker Review of Housing Supply published in 2004 stated that the UK had experienced a long-term upward trend of 2.4% in real house prices since the mid-1970s because of a lack of house building. The report stated that 240,000 houses needed to be built each year to keep up with demand.

 

The average number of houses built since the mid-1970s has been around 165,000 per year, meaning the UK is short of 3,375,000 houses

(i.e., 45 years multiplied by 75,000 missing homes per year).

 

Several years ago, the government set a target to build 300,000 new homes each year to address this issue.

However, in 2019/20, the actual number of homes delivered stood at just 243,770. In 2020/21, the number of properties built dropped to only 216,000 new homes. In a nutshell, there are fewer available homes to buy, meaning fewer available homes to rent. 

Secondly, Southampton tenants are staying in their rental homes longer.

A Southampton first-time buyer's average house deposit is £60,953

(the UK average deposit is £53,935).

The average rent of a Southampton property in November 2022 is £1,716 per calendar month (up from £932 per calendar month in February 2020) – quite a rise!

These numbers translate into Southampton renters not being able to pay the rent and be able to save for a deposit, or if they are saving, it is taking a lot longer to save for a deposit due to the cost-of-living crisis and higher rent costs.

Also, many Southampton tenants have decided to stay in their existing rental homes because of the rent rises. Many landlords are less inclined to raise the rent on an existing property when they have a decent tenant who keeps the property in good condition and pays rent on time. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that rent arrears in those properties are dropping as tenants know if they don’t pay the rent, the chances are they will have trouble finding another property, and if they do, they will have to pay a lot for their next rental home.

For Southampton landlords, this is all positive news - tenants are staying for longer in their Southampton rental properties, arrears are lower, and void periods are less likely. When it comes to the market, there is less competition (because of the decrease in the availability of Southampton rental properties) so this makes the investment an even better bet.

Thirdly, landlords are selling up on the back of recently increased house prices.

It would be difficult for Southampton buy-to-let landlords to ignore the rising property prices in recent years.

The average property value in Southampton in the summer of 2022 was 11.0% higher than in the summer of 2021.

 

For some Southampton buy-to-let landlords, especially those who were classified as ‘accidental landlords’ (an accidental landlord is a landlord who never chose to become a landlord, it was just after the Credit Crunch of 2008/9, they found themselves unable to sell their property, so they temporarily let their own property out), they chose to ‘cash in’ on the higher house prices. This would have also contributed to the lack of available Southampton homes for rent.

 

Yet everything isn’t all sweetness and light for Southampton landlords.

Landlords have a few costs to consider before investing in buy-to-let, including everything from regular refurbishment costs, buildings insurance, letting agents’ fees, income tax, and, not forgetting, stamp duty.

Talking of costs, one issue some Southampton landlords are facing is their failure to plan financially for the recent mortgage interest rate rises. Some Southampton landlords may have become complacent to the ultra-low Bank of England base rates we have had since 2008 and, therefore, may need to sell their rental property, which, if bought by a first-time buyer, will remove another property from the Private Rented Sector.

Another hurdle to jump is the proposed new regulations requiring better energy efficiency for rental properties. It is proposed all new tenancies must have at least a minimum of a 'C’ rating for their EPC (Energy Performance Certificate) from 2025 (and 2028 for all existing tenancies).

Therefore, as a buy-to-let Southampton landlord, it is wise to do your research to make sure the buy-to-let opportunity is correct for your rental portfolio, particularly when it comes to weathering any impending financial storms. 

Landlords need to consider the returns from their

Southampton buy-to-let investments.

Landlords can earn money from their buy-to-let investments in two ways. One is the property's capital growth, and the other is the rental return (often expressed as a yield). In 96% of buy-to-let investments, there is an inverse relationship between capital growth and yield (i.e., properties that tend to go up in value quicker will have lower yields 96% of the time – and vice versa).

Getting the best balance of yield and capital growth depends on your current and future needs from your Southampton buy-to-let investment.

If you would like me to review your portfolio and ascertain if your existing portfolio will match your current and future needs for the investment - whether you are a client or not, feel free to drop me a line, and we can have a no-obligation chat and possibly organise a review.

 

What does all this mean for the Southampton rental market?

 

The continued shortage of Southampton rental properties means it will be more difficult than ever to find a Southampton property to rent, and so rents will continue to grow.

Unlike in Scotland, England and Wales do not have rent controls, with Westminster ruling out the possibility of introducing rent control here to deal with the cost-of-living crisis.

You would think rent controls would be a no-brainer, yet economists from around the world have proved for the last 75 years that rent controls might help tenants in the short term, yet ultimately it drives landlords to sell their investments in the long term, thus reducing the stock of available properties to rent out (not great for future tenants).

Therefore, it is highly likely that Southampton rents

will continue to rise for tenants.

Landlords who persevere with their Southampton buy-to-let properties or become a Southampton buy-to-let landlord are set to benefit because they have an asset in very high demand.

The housing shortage, not to mention the other issues discussed above that are affecting the supply of rental properties, is unlikely to be fixed anytime soon!

In conclusion, the Southampton rental market is a constantly changing picture. What is known is that the supply of rental properties is far from what is needed, which can only be to the benefit of buy-to-let investors rather than of tenants renting.

I see buy-to-let as a long-term investment. Everyone reading this knows that the real value in your buy-to-let investment is playing the long game, allowing your Southampton buy-to-let investment to grow over time. Like the crypto or stock market, getting sucked in by get-rich-quick schemes that are selling 'apparent quick wins' in property investment is very easy.

I regularly highlight the best buy-to-let deals for Southampton landlords with all the estate agents (not just my own). You don't need to be a client of mine either to receive that information. Drop me a line or call (without any cost or obligation) if you are interested in making your first Southampton buy-to-let investment or considering adding to your existing Southampton portfolio.

What Will Rishi Sunak as PM Mean for Southampton House Prices?

I often get asked what is going to happen to Southampton house prices.

Many things affect house prices, and it comes down to simple supply and demand.

On the supply side of the equation, in the short-term, the number of people wanting to sell their property at any one time has a massive effect on house prices.

In 2007, the number of properties that came onto the market in Southampton jumped drastically. In January 2007, 2,619 properties were available for sale in Southampton and by October in the same year, that had risen to 4,400 properties.

This flooded the Southampton market with houses to buy whilst, at the same time, the banks almost stopped lending money because of the Credit Crunch, thus causing the house price crash of 2008.

Also, on the supply side of the equation is the total number of houses in the whole country (irrespective of whether they are on the market or not). This is an essential factor in house prices, although that has a longer-term effect. Governments can control the number of properties being built with changes in planning regulations, incentives for builders and the buyer schemes such as the Help to Buy plan.

On the demand side of the equation, property values typically rise if homeowners believe they will be wealthier in the future.

Typically, that occurs when the whole country’s economy is performing well as more Brits are in work and salaries are higher. The opposite is also the case when the economy goes into recession; people tighten their spending, lose their jobs, and thus, house prices drop. Inflation will affect British household budgets (because if more of the household budget is going on increased bills, there is less available for mortgage payments).

Another factor on the demand side for housing is when the population increases (through people living longer or increasing net migration) or when the divorce rate increases (making one family household into two single-person households). As always, rising demand typically means higher house prices.

One aspect of the demand side of housing that the Government can control is the taxation of moving home. In the late spring of 2020, the Government vastly reduced the tax (Stamp Duty) paid to buy a house, saving many home buyers thousands of pounds.

Also, on the demand side, property values usually increase if more homebuyers can borrow more money with a mortgage to buy their home.

The more banks and building societies can offer mortgages, the more homebuyers can buy their future home, thus raising house prices.

However, the constraint is the amount a home buyer can borrow on a mortgage.

What someone can borrow depends on what they earn and if they can afford the monthly mortgage payments. The level of mortgage payments is dependent on three things.

1.     How much you borrow

2.     The interest rate charged

3.     The length of the mortgage

The lower the interest rates are, the lower the cost of borrowing to pay for your house is and thus more people can afford to borrow money with a mortgage to buy a home, meaning house prices tend to go up.

Southampton house prices have risen by 60.63% between 2010 and today, mainly fuelled by low interest rates.

So, looking at everything above, apart from Stamp Duty and the incentives for buyers (which historically have made a minimal difference), the Government in the short-term, irrespective of who the Prime Minister is, makes little difference directly to house prices.

The most significant short-term factor which directly affects house prices is interest rates.

However, the Bank of England (not the Government) sets the interest rate for the UK economy. That means the Government (and Rishi as PM) cannot directly make any differences in house prices (apart from the points raised above).

Yet, indirectly, as seen with the Liz Truss / Kwasi Kwarteng Mini-Budget catastrophe only a few weeks ago, what the Prime Minister (and their Government) does can make a massive difference to interest rates and, thus, the property market and house prices.

 

Since December 2021, the Bank of England has been slowly raising interest rates to combat inflation. Unfortunately, the downside is that it increases the mortgage rates homebuyers must pay if they are on a variable-rate mortgage or coming off a fixed-rate deal secured a few years ago.

 

As 17 out of 20 homebuyers have a fixed-rate mortgage, when a bank or building society calculates a 5-year or 10-year fixed-rate deal, they consider what the Bank of England interest rate is today, but they also consider something equally important, something called the 'swap rate'.

 

As Southampton homeowners and landlords, it is vital you should be aware of the swap rates as they are based on what the global money markets think future UK interest rates will be.

 

If the swap rate rises, then mortgage lenders will increase their rates on the mortgages they offer, and by doing so, (as discussed previously in this article), increased mortgage rates will affect affordability and, thus, house prices.

 

So, what affects UK swap rates? Mainly one thing, the price of government debt in the form of gilt yields.

Given the vast increase of planned government debt originally announced in that mini-budget by Truss/Kwarteng, the money markets who would be lending the Government the billions of pounds to fund those tax cuts got worried the Government wouldn’t be able to pay back such a rise in borrowing, so wanted a higher rate of return on the money they were lending the Government. 

That return is measured in the 'gilt yield rate', and the gilt yield rate directly drives the 'swap rate.'

 

That rise in the gilt yield rate/swap rate was the main reason mortgage rates rocketed after the mini-budget and helped in the collapse of Liz Truss's Prime Ministership.

So, what can Southampton homeowners expect in the coming weeks and months with gilt/swap rates?

Rishi Sunak’s first job was to re-establish confidence in the money markets for UK plc. During the summer, the 5-year gilt rate rose steadily from 1.6% to 3.5%, in line with the general rise in Bank of England base rates. Yet when the mini-budget was delivered on the 23^rd of September 2022, that rose almost straight away to 4.6%.

 

That meant every mortgage rate jumped in price by 1 to 1.5% almost overnight.

At the time of writing, the 5-year British gilt yield has dropped to 3.5%, and the others have either dropped below their pre-mini-budget rate or were moving in that direction, depending on the gilt type.

The gilt rate (which directly affects the swap rate, which in turn, directly affects mortgage interest rates) could drop further, subject to what Rishi Sunak and his Chancellor Jeremy Hunt have planned in the budget (and supplementary report from the Office for Budget Responsibility) on the 17th of November 2022.

A drop in the gilt/swap rate is vital for any Southampton homebuyer buying a house or Southampton homeowner re-mortgaging to a new mortgage deal. Why? Because...

 

with the average Southampton home worth £340,118 (a rise of 6.89% over the past year), each 1% extra in the mortgage rate would cost every Southampton homeowner an additional £283.43 per month.

So, what does this all mean for Southampton house prices, then?

Greater certainty will keep the volume of housing transactions ticking over, yet not inescapably Southampton house prices.

In my blog articles on the Southampton property market, I believe Southampton house prices will be lower in 12 months, and I expect Southampton prices to return to where they were in the late spring/early summer of 2021.

And why is that? Unlike the 2008 Credit Crunch house price crash, today, the country has very low levels of unemployment and very well-capitalised banks (because the Bank of England subsequently forced them to keep lots of cash in their banks to cover downturns). Therefore, I don’t anticipate the kind of double-digit house price decreases seen 14 years ago.

If you would like to pick my brain about the Southampton property market, be you a potential Southampton first-time buyer, a Southampton homeowner looking at your options on re-mortgaging or selling, or, in fact, anyone with questions, don't hesitate to drop me a line. I will gladly share my thoughts and opinions without cost or obligation.

 

Southampton Property Market What will the stamp duty cuts and interest rate rises mean for Southampton homeowners and landlords?

 

Last week the Bank of England increased interest rates to 2.25% and they are expected to be 3.25% by early next year. This increase will make the monthly mortgage payments more expensive for first-time buyers, an issue dubbed by some as the 'property affordability crunch.'

It will also damage the household budgets of homeowners coming off their fixed-rate mortgages in the next 12 months.

So how many homeowners are coming off their fixed rates in the next year?

Of the 7.97 million homeowners with a mortgage in the UK, 6.1 million of them are on a fixed-rate mortgage at an average rate of 2.04%. Industry statistics indicate around 1.3 million homeowners are coming off their fixed rate in the next 12 months.

The current crop of fixed-rate mortgage deals available today have already had the recent increase in the base rate ‘priced-in’ for weeks.

The cheapest 5-year fixed-rate today for a 65% Loan to Value re-mortgage (i.e., you are borrowing 65% of the value of your home) is a mortgage rate of 3.8% with Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS).

 

So, what will be the difference in mortgage payments between a 2.04% mortgage and a 3.8% mortgage?

 

Say an average Southampton first-time buyer bought their first home in November 2019 on a 25-year mortgage. They had a 3-year fixed-rate mortgage, and let's assume they fixed it at 2.04% (as mentioned above), meaning their fixed-rate deal finishes next month. They have £260,000 outstanding on their mortgage, and their Southampton house is worth £400,000. They would have been paying £1,107 per month for the last three years (assuming they took out a 25-year repayment mortgage).

On the RBS deal above, they will have to start paying £1,548 per month from November when they come off their initial rate – a rise of £441 per month in mortgage payments – almost a 40% increase! That’s quite a rise and potential blow to their household budgets.

Yet if they pushed back the repayment term from 22 years to, say, 35 years, that reduces the payment to £1,120 per month – something to consider if you are re-mortgaging in the coming 12 months.

 

What will the stamp duty changes mean for

Southampton property owners?

 

PM Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng believe that cutting stamp duty will support economic growth by encouraging more people to move home or jump onto the property ladder.

Stamp duty also has other harmful side effects as it decreases labour market elasticity and curtails people from selling up and buying elsewhere, where the jobs are.

Also, stamp duty makes mature homeowners stay put in their large homes rather than downsizing. This reduction in stamp duty will encourage those mature homeowners to move, thus freeing up their large family homes for the younger families that need them.

 

The Chancellor doubled the zero-rate stamp duty band from £125,000 to £250,000, passing a stamp duty tax saving of up to £2,500 for all English homebuyers.

 

Also, tax savings are even more significant for first-time buyers, particularly in areas with high house prices, such as London and the South East. They can save a maximum of £11,250 in stamp duty – with a new zero-rate band of £425,000, based on a higher £625,000 spend cap (i.e., the house they buy can't be over £625,000 for them to qualify for the tax relief).

So, what effect will these stamp duty changes have on the Southampton property market? Looking at recent events in the local property market is the best place to start.

 

Of the 7,399 transactions in the Southampton area since June 2021, 2,987 were below £250,000. These would now be tax-free!

 

Unsurprisingly, most housing transactions in Southampton were above the £250,000 threshold, yet irrespective of that point, it’s a saving of up to £2,500 for all future Southampton homebuyers.

Anyone currently buying a house in Southampton and not yet completed on their purchase (completion is when you have paid the money for your home and collected the keys) will be in line to make this saving.

Southampton landlords purchasing buy-to-let properties will also save money with the stamp duty cut (but they will still be liable for their second home stamp duty levy of 3%).

Overall, this is a welcome move to help the Southampton property market.

 

Yet will the stamp duty threshold rise have the seismic effect that the Rishi Sunak stamp duty holiday did in 2021, where just under 40% more people moved home than the long-term 30-year average?

 

I am sure the stamp duty cut will somewhat offset the rising costs in mortgage rates mentioned in this article and cushion the blow to the property market.

A blow to what you might ask?

Well, many people judge the property market's health by house prices.

 

The average value of a Southampton property stands at £340,869 and has risen 15.6% in the last five years. Not bad, eh?

 

But I believe there is a better way to judge the health of the local property market, and that is the number of people moving home (i.e., housing transactions).

You might be asking yourself why we should be more concerned about the number of property transactions and not the change in property values.

Many economists believe the number of property transactions is a far more accurate bellwether for the health and potency of the local housing market. A greater number of people moving home is better for the whole economy (i.e., what these changes are being made for) than a smaller number of transactions, whilst the same can’t be said for higher house prices. 

So, what is going to happen to Southampton house prices?

 

I believe the growth in Southampton house prices achieved in 2021/22 is not sustainable into 2023.

In conjunction with the price cap on energy bills, the stamp duty change, the reversal of the rise in National Insurance and the drop in Income Tax will mitigate house price drops. Yet, I foresee a ‘slight’ realignment in the house prices being achieved in 2023, compared to 2022.

The more significant impact these changes will have is the number of people moving home in the next 12 months.

I have been forecasting a 15% to 20% year-on-year drop in Southampton property transactions in 2023. Following this stamp duty cut and the measures mentioned above, I believe it will be lower, maybe around 5% lower.

 

To conclude, I predict we will have slightly lower house prices and fewer people moving home in Southampton, but not in any way a crash that many thought was on the horizon.

 

Before I go though, let me share some thoughts on whether stamp duty is a fair tax.

Now, this is almost a topic for a standalone article itself. Some economists believe that removing stamp duty (which raised £14.1bn in tax in 2021) and replacing that lost income to the Exchequer by increasing council tax on more expensive properties would do a lot more than other intended tax cuts to boost economic growth.

According to some commentators, the way UK Government taxes housing is flawed. They suggest instead of taxing an infrequent property transaction particularly harshly (the average stamp duty bill is £10,600), the Government should tax living in a house more, especially those who live in the higher priced properties.

So let us see how viable that could be…

Even if council tax was frozen for bands A to D (the lower priced properties), and the uplift between the more expensive council tax bands was doubled on each step between band D and H (so a typical band E property owner would see their council tax rise from £2,473 to £3,628 per year and a typical Band H see a rise of from £3,435 per year to £5,790 per year), such massive increases in council tax would be political suicide for the wealthy Tory voting homeowners and only raise £5.28bn – a long way from the £14.1bn currently raised.

Now, if the £14.1bn tax raise were spread evenly over all council tax bands, the average band D property would need to rise by £490 per year, and even a band A would increase by an extra £382 a year … something that again would be political suicide.

Yes, stamp duty is flawed. It's just every other option has more significant flaws.

Anyway, these are just my thoughts. Tell me, people of Southampton, what are your thoughts on the Budget, the stamp duty changes or whether stamp duty is fit for purpose and what you would do if you were the Chancellor to bolster the British property market?

 

Southampton OAPs are Getting Jobs and Downsizing Properties to Beat the Cost-of-Living Crisis

Southampton OAP retirees have to make tough choices with the onset of the cost-of-living crisis.

 

Growing inflation, unpredictable financial markets and the high cost of living mean many former retired Southampton people are returning to work in what has been dubbed the ‘great unretirement’. Some are even bringing forward their downsizing house move.

Looking at the changing job market, July saw the most significant month-on-month rise in OAPs working since records began in the 1990s when 1 in 23 of all the UK’s OAPs went back into employment.

That now means ….

 4,106 Southampton over 65s are in gainful employment

 (i.e., 1 in 8 of them).

As a backdrop, the number of working 65-year-olds and above has been increasing since the mid-nineties when 1,765 Southampton OAPs were employed. Yet, July's figures were the largest monthly jump on record by quite a distance.

Looking at the changing property market, I have been speaking to many Southampton OAP homeowners who are having to bring their downsizing plans forward several years to survive the cost-of-living crisis. The money generated from the downsizing will cover their housekeeping and massive energy bills.

So why would someone want to downsize? Mostly, their homes are too big for their needs as their children have flown the nest decades before. The government classifies a property as under-occupied if it has two or more spare bedrooms.

 

How big is the under-occupation issue in the UK?

 

Of the 4.52 million British homes owned by those aged 65 and over, 3.04 million have at least two spare bedrooms (i.e., under-occupied). Looking locally…

12,824 of the 29,791 Southampton OAPs have two or more spare bedrooms.

 You might ask why this is important.

Well, to start, it's holding back Southampton families that need the bedrooms and space these larger houses offer if the older occupants won't move on. Also, these larger homes cost more to run in terms of energy bills and other things such as building insurance and council tax.

 

From October (even with the recent energy bill cap) it will cost on average £354 per month in gas and electricity alone for a large Southampton 4-bed detached home (where occupants are home all day).

 

So why are there so many mature homeowners in their 70s, 80s and even 90s still living in houses that are too large for their day-to-day requirements? There are several reasons for this. One is the obvious emotional attachment to the family home they have often owned since the 1970s and 1980s. The second is to escape the hassle and costs of the house move, and finally, the small number of suitable Southampton properties for them to buy to attract them to make a move.

The growing energy bills have provoked many of those mature Southampton homeowners, who maybe can’t or do not wish to get a job, to re-evaluate their home life strategy. I am seeing an ever-increasing number of mature Southampton homeowners downsizing (or, as I prefer, rightsizing) to diminish their monthly expenditures.

So how much could mature Southampton homeowners gain by downsizing?

The numbers are intriguing when looking at the average difference between the sale price and the subsequent purchase price of the average downsizer.

Southampton downsizers could unlock an average of £175,400 per household.

Not only will Southampton homeowners earn this lump of cash for their extended retirement, but they will also save themselves around £176 per month in lower energy bills, buildings insurance and council tax bills.

So, what are the options for mature Southampton homeowners?

Waiting 12 months to make a move might mean you are putting your Southampton home on the market as every other OAP homeowner puts their home on the market, meaning the dynamics of the local property market will probably be a lot different. Thus, the equity you release on the downsize could be much lower.

Yet some of you will be worried about finding your next home. Not to worry.

At our agency, we do things differently than many other Southampton estate agents. We can find you a buyer, then put everything on ice and go and find you a property to buy. We guarantee you won't be made homeless if you or we can't find another home for you to move to.

We call it peace of mind!

If you would like a chat about this, without any obligation, feel free to call Belvoir on 02380018222 or email me brian.linehan@belvoir.co.uk.

Southampton Tenants' Spiralling Energy Bills are About to Become Southampton Landlords’ Problem

 

As gas and electric bills rocket for Southampton tenants, Southampton landlords who do not start to make energy efficiency upgrades face lengthy void periods and will have to discount their rents. This is irrespective of the Government's plans to change the rules on renting properties with low Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) ratings.

Until six months ago, out of the thousands of tenants I have shown around Southampton properties in all my years as an agent, I can count the number of tenants who have requested to see the EPC of the rental property on the one hand. Now, it’s the first question tenants ask.

The better the EPC rating, the lower the gas and electric bills.

Southampton tenants are leaving their poor EPC-rated properties which are too expensive to run and moving into higher-rated EPC rental properties.

The average heating bill for the 25,247 Southampton tenants will rise from £67.61 per month to £175.78 per month. 

And their hot water bill will rise by £37.47 per month and lighting by £24.02 per month. Each Southampton tenant will have to find an extra £169.67 per month for their gas and electric bills.

To give you an idea of the extent of the money being spent by Southampton tenants on heating alone (ignoring hot water or lighting), last year it was £20,482,820.46, and by 2023, it will be £53,255,333.20 a year.

Yet these stats don’t tell the whole story.

It is a legal requirement for every rented property to have an EPC which rates a property on its energy performance (like those washing machine or fridge ratings, albeit for a property). A is the best rating, and G is the worst.

Whilst the law states property cannot be rented with an EPC rating lower than an E in England and Wales, there are exceptions to this, meaning Southampton rental properties are still being let legally with an F and G rating. Although legislation for a minimum E rating EPC requirement in Scotland was scheduled in 2020, it never passed through the Scottish Parliament because of the pandemic. 

Let me show you the average saving in energy bills between the EPC rating of an average Southampton rental property.

 

·      A Southampton rental property with a D rating will cost £38.50 more per month than a C-rated property

·      A Southampton rental property with an E rating will cost £67.66 more per month than a D-rated property

·      A Southampton rental property with an F rating will cost £97.16 more per month than an E-rated property

 

Both Westminster and Holyrood governments now propose introducing a minimum EPC of band C for all new tenancies from 2025 (and 2028 for existing tenancies).

Irrespective of this new potential legislation, those Southampton landlords with low EPC ratings will now need to seriously consider making those energy efficiency upgrades to ensure their Southampton rental properties continue to appeal to tenants.

I can see Southampton rental property’s energy efficiency ratings filtering into rental prices over the winter months.

Southampton rental properties with low EPC ratings will probably rent for between 4% to 10% less than higher energy proficient properties.

This means Southampton landlords could have to accept between £54.80 and £137.00 per month less for an average Southampton property with a low EPC rating compared to a high-rated EPC rental property.

Any Southampton rental property with a lower EPC rating will also take longer to find a tenant, especially during the winter. This means some Southampton landlords will have the prospect of void periods early next year.

I have seen more Southampton rental properties coming onto the market in July and August, so if this trend continues, this will give Southampton tenants much more choice. With the increased supply of rental properties, I certainly believe some tenants could decide to offer less on Southampton rental properties with low EPC ratings.

So, what are the options?

Why Aren’t Liz and Rishi Courting Southampton’s Generation Rent?

 

With the cost-of-living crisis beginning to hit, the 20 and 30-somethings of Southampton urgently need the help and support of the Government to help them get on the property ladder.

For the last few weeks, we have listened to the debates and hustings of Liz and Rishi. Between them, they have told us how they are going to stop building on the green belt, slash taxes, outbid each other on the number of refugees they are going to deport and push back against WOKE culture wars, but what are they doing for the 20 to 30-somethings of Southampton?

Dubbed ‘Generation Rent’ by the press, desperate to get on the property ladder, this is an open goal for any candidate to obtain more votes to become the next Prime Minister.

 

Yet only 16% of the c.200,000 Tory membership is aged 18 to 34 whilst 47% of members are aged between 55 and 74.

Therefore, it's not a surprise that neither Liz nor Rishi aren’t speaking daily about the cost of petrol for the daily commute, rising childcare fees or the lack of opportunities for first-time buyers to purchase their own properties.

(For balance, 16% of Labour’s members are 18 to 34, 20% for the Lib Dems and 16% for the SNP).

Everyone is feeling the effect on their household budgets with the rise in energy bills. Yet, it is the younger generation (i.e., Generation Rent) that are having to cope with the frenzy of rising energy costs the most.

Whilst increasing energy prices will affect all households across the country, younger (and less affluent) households are more prone to be disproportionately affected than those on the lowest incomes (i.e., Generation Rent).

In the financial year ending in 2020, the least well off 25% of households spent 5.59% on energy compared to 3.9% for the average UK household. With 2023 energy bills set to be triple those figures, energy bills for those in the lower quartile will rise to around 16.8% of their household budget.

And let's look at the housing element of the ‘Generation Rent’ household budget.

 

The average rental of a Southampton property in the summer of 2020 was £1,144 PCM; by the summer of 2021, it was £1,238 PCM, and today, it is £1,332 PCM.

Overall, Southampton rents are 7.6% higher than a year ago and 16.4% higher than two years ago.

This is the fastest annual rate of rental growth since records began in 2006. This increase in rents isn’t standard. Before 2020, I would have expected to see this level of rent growth over a seven-to-ten-year period – not two years. Good news for Southampton landlords, yet not so for Southampton tenants.

Why have rents increased so much in Southampton?

It comes down to fewer rental properties and existing Southampton tenants not moving as much.

 

There are 1,716 fewer rental properties in Southampton than five years ago, leaving 30,425 private rental properties in Southampton.

 

9 out of 10 rentals come onto the market because the existing tenant is moving. Yet, because there are fewer Southampton rental properties and the asking rents for those are much higher than their current home, many Southampton tenants are not moving, exasperating the issue even further.

Today, I looked on Rightmove, and there were only 318 properties available to rent. I would have expected that to be over double that pre-pandemic.

Neither candidate has been silent on the topic of homeownership for the young.

Rishi Sunak said he would stop building on the greenbelt. This, however, would not help Generation Rent massively.

Liz Truss has pledged to help more renters buy their first home by stating she will ensure tenant’s rental payments could be used as part of mortgage affordability assessments. This is important as the mortgage payments can be 10% to 20% lower than the rental payments.

 

Tied in with new relaxed mortgage affordability rules announced by the Bank of England in early August, this is undoubtedly a step in the right direction to help Generation Rent.

 

Truss also plans to scrap the red tape holding back housebuilding and give local populations more say on developments. However, when Boris Johnson suggested something similar a few years ago, the policy was quietly dropped after the Liberal Democrats used this against them resulting in the Tory’s resounding by-election defeat in 2021 in Chesham and Amersham.

So, by the end of the first week of September, we will know who the Prime Minister will be. Whoever gets the job has a gigantic task on their hands. I wish them luck and ask them not to forget the younger generation and their aspiration to be homeowners.