What Will Happen to Southampton House Prices in 2022?

Traditionally, if you had not sold your Southampton home by the first week in November, you would normally have to wait for the house sellers to return in the famous Boxing Day rush on the portals (Rightmove, Zoopla etc) to get potential buyers interested.

Yet matters have been different this year as the various lockdowns have caused a surge in house buying right up until when the Christmas edition of the Radio Times goes on sale.

So, the question is, how will 2022 look regarding the Southampton property market?

The last couple of years in the Southampton property market have been different in many ways. So much so, many Southampton homeowners are presently deliberating whether they should put their Southampton home on the market in January or wait until later in the summer.

Speaking to many Southampton buyers and sellers, (and in fact Southampton buy-to-let landlords as well) in the last couple of weeks in the run-up to Christmas, many were asking the very same question.

 

What is going to happen to Southampton house prices in 2022?

 

Some people asking this question are Southampton buyers troubling themselves that they are about to buy their Southampton home just before a potential property crash, yet others are Southampton homeowners wanting to know where the top of the market is before they sell. Even a handful of Southampton landlords are unsure to either start buying or start selling some of their rental portfolio.

Therefore, let’s see what has happened in 2021 to make a better judgement of what should happen in 2022.

Nobody has a crystal ball that can tell what 2022 holds, however most property experts are not forecasting doom and gloom for the British property market.

Whilst the final numbers won’t be known until Easter 2022, it is estimated that in 2021 one in fifteen privately owned homes in the UK are expected to have changed hands, being the busiest year in the last 14 years. Locally,

 

3,833 properties have changed hands in the last year in Southampton

 

Although that is only up to October 2021, so numbers will be much higher once all the final counts are in by March/April.

The pandemic made many Southampton families re-evaluate what they wanted from their Southampton home, with many wanting bigger rooms (and more of them). Many in the press dubbed this ‘the race for space’, meaning the property market was flooded with home buyers, most bringing forward the home move they had planned between now and 2025.

The issue was, there weren’t enough Southampton properties on the market to satisfy every Southampton buyer, meaning Southampton house prices have unsurprisingly been driven up.

 

The average price of a home today in Southampton is £329,900

 

Although it is still premature to say what will happen in 2022, most property commentators seem assured that we are not heading towards a house price crash, mainly due to one reason.

There aren’t enough properties on the market in Southampton. Simply supply and demand economics!

The property crash in 2008 was caused by everyone dumping their property on the market.

 

In January 2007, there were 2,619 properties for sale in Southampton, one year later in January 2008, that had risen to 4,434 properties, whilst today, that stands at 930

 

And I can’t see that changing for 2022.

In 2007, mortgage interest rates were 6.5% to 7.5%, so when the economy started to falter, everyone looked to sell their homes to reduce their outgoings as unemployment rose by over 60% in just a couple of years. This time round most people have mortgage rates of around 2% to 2.5% and unemployment is dropping, meaning they don’t need to sell their Southampton home.

Now of course the stamp duty tax holiday came to an end months ago, and Bank of England base interest rates are expected to rise moderately in the coming year, yet not to the level they were in 2007 (5.75%).

Nonetheless, demand for Southampton homes will still be there. I have even read some reports suggesting that more than 20% of British households are seriously thinking of moving between now and the summer of 2023, and this will support Southampton house prices whilst demand continues to exceed supply.

 

Southampton house prices will be 1.9% higher by the end of 2022

 

Another reason why I believe that will be the case is the return to home working. If, as a country, we will need to work from home each winter for the foreseeable future because of new variants, then this will cement the need for people wanting to move home for remote working. 

It might be that Southampton buyers are looking for a dedicated office at home or that they feel they now no longer need to be in large built-up areas that are near to their work. 

This increase in Southampton house prices is expected to entice even more Southampton house sellers onto the market, which will steady Southampton house prices slightly (as supply increases), yet I still believe there won’t be enough properties coming onto the market to satisfy the colossal demand.

 

What about the Southampton rental market?

 

Rents tend to grow in line with tenants’ wages. So, with many people getting decent pay rises and not enough properties being built, many economists are suggesting rents will be 14% to 19% higher by 2027. Even with the house price growth, the numbers for rental investments still look rosy.

 

Is it the right time to buy your first property in Southampton?

 

This rise in Southampton house prices has had many people asking whether 2022 is the right time to buy their first home? Should they buy now before Southampton prices rocket even further or delay in the hope that house prices come back down? 

As with any important decision in life, this will mainly depend on your own personal life and your motives for wanting to move. 

If the Southampton home that you want to buy is on the market, available and you can afford the mortgage, then delaying could be detrimental. It’s like holding off for the ‘next generation TV’, it then coming out; then just as you are about to buy the TV, the next ‘next generation TV’ gets announced for six months’ time ... and the cycle is constantly in motion – so you end up never buying a TV … just like you will never buy your own home!

 

Buying property is a long-term game

 

Sometimes you just have to make your decision, get something bought and start the journey of the next 25 to 35 years of living in your family home whilst paying off your mortgage.

The present low interest rates for first-time buyers means that there are some very low mortgage deals available for those with a decent deposit, making it a good time to buy a Southampton property, especially if you fix the interest rate.

If your deposit is humbler, the Government’s 5% deposit mortgage guarantee scheme will still enable you to buy a property, albeit at a slightly higher interest rate.

Looking at the bigger picture, these are only my opinions. If inflation doesn’t get too out of hand and interest rates don’t go above 2% to 3%, it looks like Southampton house prices will, for 2022 and a few years beyond, continue upwards albeit with a slower trajectory than 2020/21 and probably with a few short, sharp up and down spikes on the way.

The bottom line is, ensure that any Southampton house move that you intend to make is something that you can afford, allow for future rises in interest rates and make plans for as many eventualities as possible. Do that, and you should be just fine.

These are my opinions – what are yours?