The Southampton Property Market, The Beatles, Sweden and 50 year mortgages

50 years ago, in 1967, the first human heart transplant was performed by Dr Christian Barnard in South Africa. In the same year Sweden switched from driving on the left-hand side to the right-hand side of the road. The average value of a Southampton property was £3,770, interest rates were at 5.5% and The Beatles released one of my favourite albums – their Sgt Peppers album ... but what the hell has that to do with the Southampton property market today?? Quite a lot actually ... so with my CD Player turned up loud - let me explain my friends!

I have been doing some research on the current attitude of Southampton first-time buyers.  First-time buyers are so important for both landlords and homeowners. If first-time buyers aren’t buying, they still need a roof over their heads, so they rent (good news for landlords). If they buy, demand for Southampton property goes up for starter homes and that enables other Southampton homeowners to move up the property ladder.

First-time buyers are the lifeblood of the property market. They are, however the most susceptible to interest rate rises and the affordability of mortgages. With that in mind, let us see what is happening to them…

The average value of a Southampton property is currently standing at £284,297 and UK interest rates at 0.25%. As each year goes by, it appears the age of the everlasting mortgage has started to emerge, prompted by these first-time buyers, eager to get a foot on the housing ladder. I was reading a report a few days ago where some mortgage companies confessed that the battle to gain big returns from the property market has led to mortgages that will take considerably longer than the customary 25 years to pay off.

Over the last few years, it has been commonplace for first-time buyer mortgages to be 30 and 35 years in length as the ‘Bank of Mum and Dad’ have been helping with the deposit (Beatles Sgt Pepper song - “With a Little Help from My Friends”). Now, some high street banks are offering mortgage terms of 40 years. This means first-time buyers could be paying until their mid 60’s - I can hear that other great track from the same album "When I'm Sixty-Four" ringing in my ears! So, a 50-year mortgage does not seem as far-fetched now as it would have been back in the 1970’s. After all life expectancy for a male then was exactly 69 years and today its 79 years and 5 months!

Over the last ten years, Southampton property prices have continued to rise more than wages, therefore, first-time buyers are looking for bigger loans. If this development continues, the only way repayments can remain reasonable is by increasing the term of the loan.

However, some commenters have said there are worries the mortgage companies are lending money over such a long term, they threaten leaving some first-time buyers with a generation of debt if the house price bubble bursts.  Interestingly, when I looked at what had happened to average property values in Southampton over the last 50 years, there have been bubbles. First-time buyers should take heart, since as a county we have always recovered from it a few years later. 

What if interest rates rise? Well looking at historic UK interest rates, the current rate of 0.25% is at a 300-year low. Mortgages will never be cheaper. I would however, seriously consider fixing the rate to cushion any future potential interest rate rises (since they can only go in one direction when they do change). If Southampton first-time buyers see buying a home as a long-term decision, based on the last 50 years, they should be just fine!

Before I go, a final thought for property buyers in Sweden, the land of Volvo and Abba. As Swedish property prices are so high, Swedish Regulators announced last year limits on the length of Swedish mortgage terms. They don’t bother with 50-year mortgages (On and On and On – Abba).

No, our Volvo-loving Swedish friend’s average mortgage length is 140 years (this is not a typo). Although such mortgages have had their Waterloo (Abba), regulators have significantly reduced the maximum term of a Swedish mortgage to 105 years. Either way, that’s a lot of Money, Money, Money (Abba again – Sorry!)  to pay back!

Now I will leave you in peace as I listen to the 1980’s Madness song ‘Our House’. My apologies to all the Beatles and Abba fans in Southampton - a bit of light hearted fun albeit on a serious topic.

For more information on the Southampton property market, visit the Southampton Property Market Blog If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional andcommunicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoirlettings.com or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

Blog, http://southamptonproperty.blogspot.co.uk/

Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/belvoirlettingssouthampton/

Twitter, https://twitter.com/sotonbelvoir
LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan

Website, https://www.belvoir.co.uk/letting-agents-southampton 

Southampton Buy-To-Let Predictions up to 2037

On several occasions over the last few months, in my Southampton Property Blog, I predicted that the rate of rental inflation (i.e. how much rents are rising by) had eased over the last year. At the same time I felt that in some parts of the UK rents had actually dropped for the first time in over eight years. Recent research backs up this prediction.

Rents in Southampton for new tenancies fell by 0.4% in the last 12 months (i.e. not existing tenants experiencing rental increases from their existing landlord). When we compare that current rate with the historical rental inflation in Southampton, an interesting pattern emerges ..

·         2016 - Rental Inflation in Southampton was 5.1%

·         2015 - Rental Inflation in Southampton was 9.4%

·         2014 - Rental Inflation in Southampton was 3.2%

The reason behind this change depends on which side of the demand/supply equation you are looking from. On the demand side (from the tenants point of view) there is the uncertainty of Brexit and the fact that salaries are not keeping up with inflation for the first time in three years. Critically this means tenants have less disposable income to pay their rent. As an aside, it is interesting to note that nationally, rent accounts for 29% of a tenant’s take home pay (Denton House).

On the supply side of the equation (landlords point of view) Brexit also creates uncertainty. However, the biggest issue was a massive upsurge of new rental properties coming on to the market in late 2016, caused by George Osborne’s new 3% stamp duty tax for landlords in the first part of 2016. This meant a lot of new rental properties were ‘dropped’ on to the rental market all at the same time. The greater choice of rental properties for tenants curtailed rental growth/inflation. A slight softening of Southampton property prices has compounded this.  Figures from The Bank of England suggested that first time buyers rose over the last 12 months as some were more inclined to buy instead of rent. Together, these factors played a part in the ongoing moderation of rental growth.

The lead up to the General Election in May didn’t help: after all people don’t like doubt and uncertainty. So now that we have a mandate for going forward over the next 5 years hopefully that has removed any stumbling blocks stopping tenants making the decision to move home.

Whether it be ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit negotiations (and with the Election result the Tory’s might have to be ‘softer’ on those negotiations) the simple fact is, we aren’t building enough properties for us to live in. Both in Southampton, the South East and the wider UK, long-term population trends imply that rents will soon be growing faster than inflation again. Look at the projections by the Office of National Statistics. 

Population Estimates for Southampton City Council over the next 20 years
2016 (actual)	2021	2026	2031	2036
250,806	259,036	267,464	276,670	283,321

Tenants will still require a vibrant and growing rental sector to deliver them housing options in a timely manner. As the population grows in Southampton, and wider afield, any restriction to the supply of rental properties (brought about by poor returns for landlords) cannot be in the long-term best interest of tenants. Simply put rents must go up!

The fact is that I see this as a short-term blip and rents will continue to grow in the coming years. With rents only accounting for 29% of a tenants’ disposable income, the ability for most tenants to absorb a rent increase does exist.

For more information on the Southampton property market, visit the Southampton Property Market Blog If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional andcommunicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoirlettings.com or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

Blog, http://southamptonproperty.blogspot.co.uk/

Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/belvoirlettingssouthampton/

Twitter, https://twitter.com/sotonbelvoir
LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan

Website, https://www.belvoir.co.uk/letting-agents-southampton 

12,506 Southampton Landlords – Is This a Legal Tax Loop-Hole?

In November 2015, George Osborne disclosed plans to restrain the buy-to-let (BTL) market, implying its growing attractiveness was leaving aspiring first time buyers contesting with landlords for the restricted number of properties on the market.  One of the things he brought in was that tax relief on BTL mortgages would be capped, starting in April 2017.  Before April 2017, a private landlord could claim tax relief from their interest on their BTL mortgage at the rate they paid income tax – (i.e. 20% basic /40% higher rate and 45% additional rate).

So, for example, let’s say we have a Southampton landlord, a high rate tax payer who has a BTL investment where the rent is £900 a month and the mortgage is £600 per month.  In the tax year just gone (16/17), assuming no other costs or allowable items …

·         Annual rental income £10,800.

·         Taxable rental income would be £3600 after tax relief from mortgage relief

·         Meaning they would pay £1,440 in income tax on the rental income

And assuming no other changes ... the landlord would have income tax liability’s (at the time of writing May 2017) in the tax years of ...

·         (17/18) £1,800

·         (18/19) £2,160

·         (19/20) £2,520

·         (20/21) £2,880

Landlords who are higher rate tax payers are going to have be a lot smarter with their BTL investments and ensure they are maximising their rental properties full rental capability.  However, there is another option for landlords.

The Southampton landlords who own the 12,506 Rental properties

in the town could set up a Limited Company and sell their

property personally to that Limited Company

In fact, looking at the Numbers from Companies House – many landlords are doing this.  In the UK, there are 93,262 Buy To Let Limited Companies, and since the announcement in November 2015 – the numbers have seen a massive rise.

·         Q2 2015 / Q3 2015 – 4,193 Buy to Let Limited Companies Set Up

·         Q4 2015 / Q1 2016 – 5,403 Buy to Let Limited Companies Set Up

·         Q2 2016 / Q3 2016 – 3,007 Buy to Let Limited Companies Set Up

·         Q4 2016 / Q1 2017 – 7,149 Buy to Let Limited Companies Set Up

So, by selling their buy to let investments to their own limited company, owned 100% by them, these landlords could then offset the costs of running their BTL’s as an 'allowable expense' - effectively writing off the cost of 100% of their mortgage outgoings, wear and tear and upkeep, letting agent’s fees etc.  

I am undeniably seeing more Southampton landlords approach me for my thoughts on setting up a BTL limited company, so should you make the change to a limited company? 

In fact, I have done some extensive research with companies house in the 15 months (1^st January 2016 to 31^st March 2017 and 88 Buy To Let Limited Companies have been set up in the SO postcodes alone).

Well if you are looking to hold your BTL investments for a long time it could be very favourable to take the short-term pain of putting your BTL’s in a limited company for a long-term gain.  You see, there are huge tax advantages to swapping property ownership into a limited company but there are some big costs that go with the privilege.

As the law sees the new Limited Company as a separate entity to yourself, you are legally selling your BTL property to your Limited Company, just like you would be selling it on the open market. Your Limited company would have to pay Stamp Duty on the purchase and if you (as an individual) made a profit from the original purchase price, there could be a capital gains tax liability of 18% to 28%.  The mortgage might need to be redeemed and renegotiated (with appropriate exit charges).

On a more positive note, what I have seen though by incorporating (setting up the Limited Company) is landlords can roll up all their little buy to let mortgages into one big loan, often meaning they obtain a lower interest rate and the ability to release some capital.  Finally, if the tax liability is too high to swap to a limited company, some savvy buy to let investors are leaving their existing portfolios in their personal name whilst purchasing any new investment through a limited company?  Just an idea (not advice!).

It’s vital that landlords get the very best guidance and information from tax consultants with the right qualifications, experience and insurance.  Whatever you do, always get the opinions from these tax consultants in writing and you shouldn't hurry into making any hasty decisions.  The modifications to BTL tax relief are being progressively eased in over the next three years so there is no need to be unnerved and rush into any decisions before finding out the specifics as they relate precisely to your personal situation, because with decent tax planning (from a tax consultant) and good rental / BTL portfolio management (which I can help you with) ... whatever you do - let’s keep you the right side of the line!

For more information on the Southampton property market, visit the Southampton Property Market Blog If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional andcommunicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoirlettings.com or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

Blog, http://southamptonproperty.blogspot.co.uk/

Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/belvoirlettingssouthampton/

Twitter, https://twitter.com/sotonbelvoir
LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan

Website, https://www.belvoir.co.uk/letting-agents-southampton 

Council House Waiting List in Southampton Drops by 56.9% in last 5 years

Should you buy or rent a house? Buying your own home can be expensive but could save you money over the years. Renting a property through a letting agent or private landlord offers less autonomy to live by your own rules, with more flexibility if you need to move.

Yet, there is third way that many people seem to forget, yet it plays an important role in the housing of Southampton people. Collectively known as social housing, it is affordable housing, which is let by either Southampton City Council or a housing association to those considered to be in specific need, at rents below those in the private rental market.

In Southampton, there are 23,373 social housing households, which represent 22.18% of all the households in Southampton. There are a further 7,001 families in the Southampton City Council area on their waiting list, which is similar to the figures in the late 1990’s. The numbers peaked in 2011, when it stood at 16,258 families, so today’s numbers represent a drop of 56.9%.

Nevertheless, this doesn't necessarily mean that more families are being supplied with their own council house or housing association property. Six years ago, Westminster gave local authorities the right to limit entitlement for social housing, quite conspicuously dismissing those that did not have an association or link to the locality.

Interestingly, the rents in the social rented segment have also been growing at a faster rate than they have for private tenants. In the Southampton City Council area, the average rent in 1998 for a council house/housing association property was £179.18 a month, whilst today its £376.26, a rise of 110% in 19 years.

When comparing social housing rents against private rents, the stats don’t go back to the late 1990’s for private renting, so to ensure we compare like for like, we can only go back to 2005. Over the last 12 years, private rents have increased nationally by a net figure of 19.7%, whilst rents for social housing have increased by 59.1%.

So, what does this all mean for the homeowners, landlords and tenants of Southampton?

Rents in the private rental sector in Southampton will increase sharply during the next five years. Even though the council house waiting list has decreased, the number of new council and housing association properties being built is at a 70 year low. The government crusade against buy-to-let landlords together with the increased taxation and the banning of tenant fees to agents will restrict the supply of private rental property, which in turn using simple supply and demand economics, will mean private rents will rise – making buy to let investment a good choice of investment again (irrespective of the increased fees and taxation laid at the door of landlords).  It will also mean property values will remain strong and stable as the number of people moving to a new house (and selling their old property) will continue to remain restricted and hence, due to lack of choice and supply, buyers will have to pay decent money for any property they wish to buy.

Interesting times ahead for the Southampton Property Market!

For more information on the Southampton property market, visit the Southampton Property Market Blog

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional andcommunicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoirlettings.com or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

Blog, http://southamptonproperty.blogspot.co.uk/

Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/belvoirlettingssouthampton/

Twitter, https://twitter.com/sotonbelvoir
LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan

Website, https://www.belvoir.co.uk/letting-agents-southampton