The Future of the Southampton Buy-To-Let Market in 2022

 

The Headlines...

•    Southampton rents up by 3.4% in the last 12 months
•   Southampton house Prices up 5.1% in the last 12 months
•   Southampton landlords helped by ultra-low mortgage rates and a stamp duty holiday 
•   Yet, some landlords in Southampton anxious about a possible end to no fault evictions
•   New EPC rules could cost Southampton landlords £10,000+ per property 

In this article, I will look at what happened in 2021 in the Southampton buy-to-let property market and give you my opinion as to what lies ahead for Southampton landlords in 2022 and beyond.

On a positive note, Southampton house prices have increased, rents have risen faster than inflation, at the start of the year we had the benefit of a stamp duty holiday and finally, ultra-low mortgage rates, meaning Southampton landlords had lots to be happy about in 2021.  

On a more cautious note, the laws regarding renting are currently being debated in Parliament which will see the end of no-fault tenant evictions and changes in regulations will require Southampton landlords to make their buy-to-let rental properties more eco-friendly at a cost of up to £10,000+ each.

So, let’s have a look at these points…

 

Southampton Rents will Continue to Rise in 2022

Southampton buy-to-let landlords have seen the average rent of a Southampton rental property rise by 3.4% in the last 12 months.  

The number of Southampton properties available to rent on the property portals (e.g. Rightmove etc) at any one time is roughly 35% to 40% below the last decade’s average, meaning there is greater competition for each rental property.

Demand has increased for several reasons.

Firstly, some homeowners cashed in on the high prices, sold up and moved into rented property.

Secondly, some Southampton buy-to-let landlords have also cashed in on the buoyant property market and sold their rental property when their existing tenant handed in their notice.

Finally, the rental sector has an inverse relationship to the state of the general British economy, meaning with the uncertainty in the British economy in the early part of 2021, this meant more people decided to rent rather than tie themselves into a mortgage.

Looking at the supply side of the Southampton rental market, in the short term, rents will continue to grow as some Southampton landlords are abandoning the rental market - some because of the impending regulation changes which I will talk about later and others with the natural flow of people cashing in their investments on retirement.

With increased demand and restricted supply, this will only lead to competition becoming more severe between renters, thus ensuring Southampton rents continue to rise.

 

Southampton House Price Growth Will Slow

For those that own property, the way house prices grew in 2021 surprised most people.

Southampton house prices, according to the Land Registry, grew by 5.1% in 2021, with the typical Southampton home reaching £325,800.

Many local landlords have been helped by this increase in Southampton house prices and will be in a place to cash in on those capital gains by either selling their buy-to-let property (as mentioned in the previous section) or releasing some equity by re-mortgaging.

Whether Southampton house price rises carry on at such a rate in 2022 will mainly depend on whether the imbalance between the number of properties that come on to the market is outweighed by the number of buyers – it’s simple supply and demand!

Most commentators believe that nationally house prices will be between 3% and 5% higher by the end of 2022 and I can see no reason why Southampton house prices won’t be in that range by the end of the year either.

 

Mortgage Rates Will Rise

The reduction in tax relief for Southampton buy-to-let landlords with mortgages in the last five years hit some landlords hard, yet this has been tempered by the inexpensive ultra-low mortgages available to buy-to-let landlords.

Yet even with the Bank of England increase in base rates, Southampton landlords with big deposits of 40% or more can benefit from low rates. For example, at the time of writing, you can get a BTL mortgage at 1.49% fixed for 5 years with a 40% deposit (meaning borrowing £180,000 on a £300,000 purchase would only cost you £719 per month on a 25-year mortgage - or £224 per month on interest only).

However, those with only a 25% deposit must pay slightly more, but only at a mortgage rate of 1.64% - who can remember mortgage rates of 14% to 15% in 1992?

With inflation rising, the Bank of England has already indicated further interest rate rises are on the cards. I suspect they will be around the 1% mark by Christmas 2022. Therefore, if you are one of the one in five landlords on a variable rate mortgage, your margins will be squeezed as your variable rate mortgage will rise in line with the Bank of England interest rate rise.

Maybe it’s time to consider fixing your mortgage?

 

The End of No-fault Evictions?

The Renters' Reform Bill in England and The Renting Homes Act in Wales are both set to abolish Section 21 (no fault eviction). Section 21 laws allow landlords to take back possession of their rental properties without having to prove fault by the tenant.

Yet in 2022, Westminster will issue plans for a change of this law which will probably incorporate the eradication of Section 21, which would signify a major change in the balance of power between the landlord and tenant. 

Some doom mongers are worried that with the abolition of Section 21, Southampton landlords may be unenthusiastic about renting and therefore sell up and leave the rental sector altogether. Yet those people said the same when tax relief for landlords was changed five years ago.

The Scottish equivalent of Section 21 was abolished at the end of 2017.

At the time, there was some anxiety about how this would affect the Scottish rental market, as anxious landlords and letting agents felt that they could lose control of their rental properties under this new law. Nonetheless, just over four years later, the rental sector has not collapsed in Scotland. The buy-to-let market remains upbeat, and there are signs that a Scottish landlords’ right to evict their tenant has been reinforced by these changes in the law.

The reason the Scottish changes worked was the new grounds for repossessing rental properties was clear and wide-ranging. The Scots sped up the slow and unwieldy eviction process where the landlord had a legal and genuine reason to re-claim their property.

All I hope for is that the same changes are made south of the border to the court procedure.

 

New EPC Rules Could Cost Southampton Landlords £10,000+ per Property 

The law currently stands that Southampton landlords need an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) with at least a rating of E.

Westminster is anticipated to increase the EPC requirement for private rental properties in England and Wales to an EPC rating of C for all new rental tenancies by 2025/6, and for all existing tenancies by 2028, whilst Scottish landlords are also expected to see energy efficiency measures in their new proposed Housing Bill.

The problem is 1,959,045 of the 2,965,455 registered rental properties on the EPC database have an energy rating of D or below. 

To take a property from an EPC D rating to a C rating might only cost a few hundred pounds, yet the average for all rental D and E rated properties has been calculated at just over £10,000 per property.

My advice to every Southampton landlord is to look at the full EPC report of their rental property (and if you haven’t got it, contact me and I will send it to you -whether you are a client or not) as that will tell you whether this will be a big or small job.

Renovating the UK’s rental stock to meet the Government's carbon neutral targets will be a big task for landlords. There is talk of exemptions, as there currently is for the existing minimum EPC E rating - yet only time will tell on that front.

Maybe those Southampton landlords currently buying properties to add to their rental portfolio should reconsider their buying strategy? In the past, it has been normal for Southampton buy-to-let investors to be attracted to the inexpensive older properties that need an overhaul. However, with the potential energy efficiency laws coming into the game, it's rational to suggest that buy-to-let landlords will be more predisposed to buying slightly newer properties rather than have the cost for the upgrades to meet the potential energy targets.

 

Conclusion

Roll the clock back 20 years and making money from buy-to-let in Southampton was as easy as falling off a log. Yet with increased legislation and regulation, together with the changing dynamics of the British economy and the requirements tenants want in a rental property, making money won’t be as easy over the next 20 years.

It amazes me that 11 out of 20 landlords still do not use a letting agent to help them with their rental portfolio, considering the cost can be offset against your tax and more importantly the liability to you if you get it wrong is massive (there are very large fines and even prison! If you don’t comply with the 170 pieces of legislation and regulations).

Moving forward, the savvy Southampton landlords will more and more utilise their letting agent not only to collect the rent and manage the property but also build up their portfolio to withstand the regulatory and demographic changes on the horizon and to ensure that their investment is fit for purpose in the medium to long-term.

If your existing letting agent does not offer such advice, or you are a self-managing landlord, let’s have a chat about future of the Southampton rental market.

Whether you are a client of mine or not, if you would like me to look at your rental portfolio and see where you stand, then drop me a line and maybe we can meet for a coffee (or we can meet virtually over Zoom) to discuss the matter – all at no charge.

Will the Southampton Property Market Continue to Boom?

 

All the signs are that the Southampton housing market is sat on good foundations, yet one key hazard could still scupper the market.

 

‘UK Property Prices Rising at Record Levels’ is the headline of many newspapers. In the last few weeks, the Halifax reported they had grown by 6.5% in the last 12 months, whilst the Nationwide said 7.1% and not to be outdone, the Government’s own Land Registry said 8.6%. Nothing new there then you might think, don’t UK house prices always increase?

 

Actually, they don’t, as many Southampton homeowners will remember 2009, when they dropped by 19%. Also, some more mature Southampton homeowners will remember the early 1990’s where house prices dropped just over 40% over 4 years (after the 1989 property crash). So, the increase in UK house prices over the last 12 months has mystified all the forecasts made by most economists as…

 

house prices were forecast to drop during the pandemic because during the previous six UK recessions experienced since WW2, house prices have always fallen sharply in real terms.

 

Yet 2020 was different with house price growth increasing at its highest rate since 2014 as the substantial Government support programmes (including Bounce Back Loans, grants and furlough) has mollified the hit to household incomes. Add to that the pent-up demand from the Boris Bounce, all the people working from home wanting an extra room for an office and therefore needing to move, plus the stamp duty tax holiday, with the cherry on the cake of 0.1% Bank of England interest rates keeping borrowing affordable. This has meant…

 

Southampton property values are 7.8% higher than a year ago.

 

Yet the affordability of property is a big issue going forward. By the time of the height of the last property boom in 2008, the national ratio of average property values to earnings had risen from 5.1 in 2000 to 8.8 (i.e. the average house price was 8.8 times the size of the UK’s average person’s annual earnings). We then had the property crash in the proceeding years, and the ratio dropped to around late six’s/early sevens. However, over the last few years, the ratio has been steadily rising and now with the recent growth in demand for property (the five reasons mentioned in the previous paragraph), the ratio has now smashed past nine. Looking locally…

 

the ratio of average property values to earnings in Southampton as a comparison was 3.9 in 2000, rising to 6.0 in 2008, dropping to 5.3 the year later when the Credit Crunch hit, and now currently stands at 6.8.

So, are we heading for another house price crash? Maybe, maybe not - because the House Price to Earnings ratio only tells us part of the story. Another indicator of the property market is mortgage affordability, which measures the proportion of mortgage payments to average incomes. For all mortgage holders, in 2015, this stood at 24.13% and today it is only just above the national long-term average of 25%, demonstrating that property is still affordable.

 

Yet, the life blood of the property market are first-time buyers. The long-term average percentage of income which goes on mortgage payments for first-time buyers is 33%. Just before the 1989 property market crash, this stood at 54%. Whilst just before the 2008 property crash, it reached 49%. Today, it stands at 31.7% (and the reason it’s so low even with record high property prices is low interest rates, because when mortgage interest rates are low, this permits people to afford larger mortgages, which enables them to bid up house prices).

 

So why aren’t more first-time buyers buying more homes? Well in fact they are buying more homes. At the turn of the Millennium, just over half of 25yo to 35yo were homeowners and by 2014, this had dropped to just a third, although since then it has increased to 41%. Now with the reintroduction of the Government backed 95% mortgages in April, this demand will continue further.

 

Once furlough ends, unemployment will doubtless rise in the following 12 months, yet the economy is more than likely to be in a boom phase, so by the spring/summer of 2021, the unemployment rate should start to fall.

 

So, does everything look great for the Southampton property market?

 

Before you get the Champagne out, there is a cloud on the horizon - the possibility of higher interest rates.

 

Undoubtedly, for the next few years, interest rates will not go up (and if they do – it will only be nominally). However, down the line it may be a different tale. Interest rates are used to control a number of economic factors, one being the currency and secondly inflation.

 

As many suggest, if we get an economic boom in the next 12 to 18 months, as we come out of lockdown, this will put upward pressure on the price of goods and services. Normally, when prices go up (inflation), to ensure that inflation doesn’t get out of control, interest rates are normally increased to dampen down the inflation.

 

So, will interest rates rise? Undoubtably they will. Southampton homeowners and buy-to-let landlords should seriously consider protecting themselves with fixed rate mortgages (yet 3 in 10 mortgagees are still on variable rate mortgages!). I believe we will see some inflation in the order of 3% to 5% in the coming 24 to 36 months, yet the interest rates won’t be enabled to bring it down. We had a similar case in the early 2010’s when we had a mis-match of demand and supply of goods, and inflation spiked to 5%, before returning back to its long term 2% average quite quickly thereafter.

 

The Chancellor will also encourage some inflation to reduce the ‘real’ cost of the Billions he has borrowed because of the pandemic, yet won’t want to see interest rates increase to take the cost of the borrowing upwards.

 

If you are considering moving home or buying/selling a buy-to-let property in Southampton in the next 12 to 18 months, and want a chat about your options, don’t hesitate to drop me a line.

 

Finally, these are interesting times ahead – I would love your thoughts on this matter. Please do share them in the comments.

CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT HOW MUCH YOUR SOUTHAMPTON PROPERTY IS WORTH

 

If you would like to pick my brains on the Southampton Property Market – Just drop me a line on social media or email me @ brian.linehan@belvoir.co.uk you can also call me on 023 8001 8222.

 

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional and communicative, then contact me to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

 

 

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

 

Blog, http://southamptonproperty.blogspot.co.uk/

 

Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/belvoirsouthampton/

 

Twitter, https://twitter.com/sotonbelvoir

 

LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan

 

Website, https://www.belvoir.co.uk/offices/southampton

𝐄𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐖𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐧 𝐋𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐬 𝐂𝐚𝐧 𝐆𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐥

In this three-minute read, we look at how landlords can avoid getting a bad insurance deal

If you’re a landlord looking to take out insurance or renew a current policy, there are a few things you should know.

The insurance market is “hardening”, or in other words, insurers are tightening their belts.

The rising costs of claims due to extreme weather events such as last year’s Storm Dennis and low interest rates (meaning insurance firms make less on their investments) have hit the industry hard.

As a result, insurers are upping the cost of premiums and employing other – less obvious – tactics to increase their bottom line.

𝐁𝐮𝐭 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭, 𝐚 𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐜𝐤 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫

Landlords need specific insurance; a standard home and contents policy will not suffice. Landlord insurance is usually a condition of a buy-to-let mortgage, but even if you’re debt-free, it’s worth getting. (You hope the worst won’t happen, but if it does, you’ll be covered.)

Standard policies include buildings and liability cover, although you can also opt to include things like legal costs, accidental damage, or loss of rent.

𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐢𝐩𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐧 𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐬 𝐅𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐜𝐤𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐥:

- If you already have a policy, read it thoroughly before you start your research. It might not be the most exciting few hours of your life, but your diligence could save you time and money in the long run.

- Note in your diary when your policy is due to expire and leave yourself enough time to shop around. You won’t get the best deal if you’re in a last-minute panic.

- Look at what the premium covers. Is there a gaping omission that could leave you exposed? If it’s an existing policy, has your coverage been reduced?

- Check the standard excess (excess rates have been creeping up). The policy premium might be appealingly low, but if the excess is high, you could wind up paying more in the long run.

- Be aware that some types of claims have a higher excess. For example, escape of water (which covers leaks and burst pipes) has a higher excess as it’s a more common occurrence.

- Check the rules around vacancy as some policies become void if the property is empty. As there could be a rise in tenant turnover when furlough ends later this year, ensure your policy gives you a bit of leeway on vacancy periods.

- Have your paperwork to hand when talking to insurers. They’ll want to know (and see proof of) the age of the property, state of repair, and claims history.

- Some policies only cover certain types of tenants – for example, professionals – who are viewed as low risk. It may pay to include other tenant groups, such as students, in your policy to give you more flexibility.

For more advice about protecting your rental property, get in touch with us here at Belvoir.

COPYRIGHT Belvoir Southampton 2021

Will Southampton House Prices Fall in 2022?

One of the most astounding things that has happened in the last 12 months was something that did not happen. Even after the country saw the deepest recession since the Great Freeze of 1709 with GDP dropping 28% in one quarter, one would have expected a large fall in Southampton house prices would follow. Yet…

 

Southampton house prices are 7.8% higher than 12 months ago.

 

Even though buying and selling Southampton property was put on ice for the first time in the history of the Southampton property market last spring due to the Covid 19 outbreak, as the Southampton property market wobbled on the edge of a deep recession, it stepped back in early summer and now it is rocketing upwards as…

 

13.4% of Southampton homes are selling within a fortnight of coming to market.

 

Some commentators have suggested the end of the Stamp Duty holiday together with the ending of the furlough scheme on the 30^th September 2021 could be the catalyst for a drop in house prices. Even the Government’s own regulator of finances expects UK house prices to fall around a couple of percentage points in 2022 whilst some others have predicted a drop of around 5% as unemployment levels increase post furlough.

 

However, other property market forecasters believe that property values in 2022 won’t drop against the background of robust British economic recovery in Q3 and Q4 of 2021.

 

What do I think will happen to the Southampton property market in the next 12 months?

 

On the positive side, what I do know is the Stamp Duty holiday enabled Southampton homebuyers to spend those tax savings on the price paid for their Southampton home and that certainly accounts for some of the uplift in house prices mentioned above.

 

Also, the historically low interest rates that have supported Southampton homebuyers’ affordability for the last 13 years since the Credit Crunch has continued. Secondly, with people spending many months working from home, this has seemed to have polarised people’s inclination to make lifestyle changes. Finally, the Government has recently introduced 5% deposit mortgages for first-time buyers. All these factors will fuel demand and hence may cause house prices to rise.

 

On a more cautious note, I do not believe these very sturdy Southampton house value rises of the past year will persist at these levels for the next 12 months. With buyers having to use many thousands of pounds on Stamp Duty, the price they pay for their Southampton home will be curtailed, meaning property values by definition will ease. 

 

The simple fact is the British economy has yet to feel the full effect of its largest recession since 1709, and we must remain considerate about the long-term effects of the economy (and unemployment levels) on the property market.

 

These are interesting times for the Southampton property market. If the price you want to achieve for your Southampton home is the most important thing, now as opposed to 2022 might be a good time to consider placing your property on the market.

 

Don’t forget, you can still put your Southampton property on the market, find a buyer and then go and see what is available to buy. Many buyers will wait for you to find a property, yet if they can’t/won’t – you won’t be made homeless. English property law means you can still come away from the sale and you won’t be forced to sell. If you would like to know a bit more about that or any aspect of buying or selling property in Southampton, drop me a message or call me.

CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT HOW MUCH YOUR SOUTHAMPTON PROPERTY IS WORTH

 

If you would like to pick my brains on the Southampton Property Market – Just drop me a line on social media or email me @ brian.linehan@belvoir.co.uk you can also call me on 023 8001 8222.

 

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional and communicative, then contact me to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

 

 

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

 

Blog, http://southamptonproperty.blogspot.co.uk/

 

Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/belvoirsouthampton/

 

Twitter, https://twitter.com/sotonbelvoir

 

LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan

 

Website, https://www.belvoir.co.uk/offices/southampton

Lessons for landlords in Southampton from the wealthiest person in the world

A landlords’ advice article published recently said property investors need to think more like the Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.

The billionaire businessman is renowned for his long-term thinking. He thinks decades ahead, and let’s face it, he’s not doing too bad, is he?

The article said landlords should retain good tenants at a reasonable rate rather than aim to get the highest rents in the short term. It’s wise advice and something we believe in.

When a landlord adopts a short-term view of their property investment, it can often lead to lasting headaches. The advice you are given can often depend on your letting agent’s philosophy.

Some agents will say things like: ‘The rental market in Southampton is on fire now. We can get you even higher rents and squeeze out every penny from tenants.’

That’s not the way we approach things. Why? Because if you hike up a person’s rent whenever possible, it may mean more money in the short run but can be more costly in the long run.

Our advice to clients and indeed anyone thinking of investing in rental property is this:

Getting higher monthly rents isn’t as crucial in the mid to long term as finding and looking after good quality tenants paying a fair rate.

Here are some of the plus points a good longer term tenant brings:

Fewer void periods.

Fewer unnecessary repair or maintenance call outs mean a reduction in the property’s running expenses.

Good tenants appreciate they are being treated fairly and respectfully, and they look after their home.

Never to be underestimated is that having a good tenant in your property reduces your stress levels.

Going for the highest monthly rent charge as a property rental strategy can often be a mistake. It is more about maximising the overall return for our landlords.

At Belvoir Southampton, we take the time to find, vet and keep good quality tenants for our landlords. This is the best way forward in the long term.

So, take a leaf out of the wealthiest person in the World’s book (Bezos was ranked #1 by Forbes magazine last month) and think further ahead when it comes to achieving rental property success.

 

*Copyright Belvoir Southampton

Are You Ready for Life after Lockdown in Southampton?

In this two-minute read, we look at how to get ready for the changes that lie ahead as restrictions continue to ease.

With the end to our arduous Covid hibernation in sight, it’s time to prepare for life in the “new normal”.

While the prospect of restrictions easing is exciting – we can’t wait to eat at Jehangir’s Restaurant and drink at The Dancing Man Pub – it will also take a little getting used to.

That’s because many of us have grown used to lockdown living; we now work from home, live in tracksuit bottoms, and tell ourselves that cutting our own hair is a good idea.

But after a year of adapting to a host of unfortunate circumstances, it’s time to adapt again – only for happier reasons. Here are a few ways to prepare for life after lockdown.

Spring clean your wardrobe

If you’ve spent the past year in leggings, jeggings, slankets, and onesies – anything with a forgiving waistline basically – now is the time to dig out your “good” clothes. Try them on and decide if you still like them and if they still fit you. Donate unwanted items to a charity shop and make any necessary purchases. You don’t have to ditch all your comfy stuff, but you will need a few pieces that will look smart in a work meeting or at a catch-up with friends.

Revamp your fitness routine

Many people kicked off the first lockdown in 2020 with a flurry of physical activity that tapered off as the pandemic dragged on and on. They’re now – understandably as it’s been a tough year – carrying a few extra pounds. If you want to shift a little weight, take your time. Start slowly and progress steadily to avoid injury. Also, focus on activities that you enjoy – they will be good for your mental health, and you’re more likely to continue with them long term.

Acknowledge stress

It may seem that with lockdown lifting, all our troubles will be over. But it’s important to be realistic with our expectations. Some of the activities that we’ve avoided over the past year such as long commutes, mingling at parties, making small talk in the work canteen – may make a return and prove stressful. If things you once took for granted now feel challenging, don’t give yourself a hard time. Talk to someone about it (lots of people will be in the same boat), and remember that we’re still navigating our way through a deadly pandemic. Be kind to other people – and yourself.

From all of us here at Belvoir, take care and stay cheerful.

COPYRIGHT BELVOIR SOUTHAMPTON 2021