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Friday, 30 October 2020

Southampton 2nd & 3rd Time Buyers Finding It Tougher (and Slower) to Move Up the Southampton Property Ladder

 


  CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT HOW MUCH YOUR SOUTHAMPTON PROPERTY IS WORTH

 

Post lockdown, the need for Southampton families who want bigger homes has meant Southampton homebuyers must now pay considerably more to trade up to that larger home…

 

One thing that has come out of lockdown has been the inexorable movement of Southampton households wanting to upsize to a larger home. Often considered to be first time buyer properties, the smaller 1st step on the property ladder one and two bedroom properties are selling quite well yet demand for those properties on the 2nd and 3rd step rungs on the Southampton property ladder (i.e. the three or four bedroom homes) has been even greater.

This demand has been driven by Southampton buyers looking for more living space, especially those looking for an area or room to work from home (be that a bedroom, reception room or even an outbuilding converted into a study).

The average asking price of a 3 bed Southampton home is £284,900, whilst for a 4 bed Southampton home it stands at £393,400

 

As you can see, quite a jump for an extra bedroom! The increased competition for 2nd and 3rd step Southampton homes for that extra bedroom has pushed demand to a record in October for those looking to take the next step up the ladder. Historically, as a family and its household income grow, the need for more space has permanently been the main reason for moving home, yet now there is a new need for additional space to facilitate people working from home. This means not only do we have growing families wanting larger Southampton homes, there are also the people needing the same larger homes for space for a home office. So, looking at the current stats, as you can see, the Southampton property market is doing quite well…

60.1% of all listed 3 bed and 61.3% of all listed 4 bed homes

in Southampton are sold (subject to contract)

 

Roll the clock back to pre-Covid times and ask any Southampton homeowner who had enough bedrooms for their children if they wanted an additional bedroom, and most homeowners would say that was very much a ‘nice to have’, yet not a ‘must have’. With us all being cooped-up over the spring this year, demand for additional rooms is at a high, with those presently looking for their next larger Southampton home are going to find that only offers close to (if not sometimes over) the asking price will be accepted.

Even though no properties sold during lockdown, putting the Southampton (and UK) property market on hold for many months, many more people buying their next Southampton home will have more than made up for it since lockdown was lifted as the portals have stated if the UK property market remains at its existing trajectory, then the number of properties sold YTD by the end of October 2020 will be greater than YTD October 2019.

Yet all these properties sold are causing another issue. Just because a property becomes Sold Subject to Contract (SSTC) doesn’t mean the property is actually “sold”. Before going into Covid, it was taking approximately 19 weeks from agreeing a sale price (and instructing lawyers) to completing the sale. Yet, because we are nationally running at 140% to 150% of properties SSTC (than we normally do at this time of year), many of my estate agents colleagues are having to manage expectations with buyers and sellers, and tell them that the date they are going to move will take a little longer.

The elephant in the room is that the temporary stamp duty holiday ends on the 31st March 2021

It sounds an age away, yet trust me, nothing could be further from the truth.  Adding an extra month for the additional homes in the bottleneck means even if the sale of your Southampton home was agreed today, that would take us to the 3rd week in March ... that’s cutting it very close for the stamp duty holiday.

It is so fundamental for buyers and sellers of Southampton homes to work meticulously with their estate agent, solicitor and mortgage lender. For example, there are less staff in the local authorities to do the local searches, bank staff are working from home meaning mortgages are taking much longer to get approved, and conveyancer/solicitors are snowed under with work. Therefore, if you get a document that needs filling in, are asked to provide documents, pay disbursements or questions need answering, do it immediately and without delay. A day here and day there will snowball and could mean you miss the stamp duty holiday … and that could cost you thousands and thousands of pounds.

The bottom line is that we haven’t seen this sort of pressure on the UK property market since 1987, when dual-MIRAS was abolished. Now, as we are slowly starting to come out of Covid, with many legal and banking staff working remotely or still on furlough, the perfect storm has occurred with unprecedented demand from buyers looking to move post lockdown. The best advice I can give is, as soon as you put your property onto the market, find a solicitor that has the capacity to work with you, then instruct that solicitor to start work immediately to prepare the paperwork, so once you have a buyer, things can move more smoothly and quickly. The last thing you want is to lose out on saving thousands of pounds by missing the stamp duty holiday by a whisker.

  CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT HOW MUCH YOUR SOUTHAMPTON PROPERTY IS WORTH

 

If you would like to pick my brains on the Southampton Property Market – Just drop me a line on social media or email me @ brian.linehan@belvoir.co.uk you can also call me on 023 8001 8222.

 

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional and communicative, then contact me to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

 

 

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

 

Blog, http://southamptonproperty.blogspot.co.uk/

 

Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/belvoirsouthampton/

 

Twitter, https://twitter.com/sotonbelvoir

 

LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan

 

Website, https://www.belvoir.co.uk/offices/southampton

Friday, 16 October 2020

Southampton’s ‘Generation Rent’ to become ‘Generation Buy’?


  CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT HOW MUCH YOUR SOUTHAMPTON PROPERTY IS WORTH

 

Boris Johnson has attracted both praise and horror in equal measure with a new plan for 95% mortgages to help beleaguered first time buyers to get on the property ladder, but would that expose UK taxpayers to too much risk? In this article I discuss the implications of what that would mean both nationally and locally in Southampton.

 

With the Southampton property market taking off due to the stamp duty holiday introduced in the summer, Boris Johnson announced at the recent Tory Conference a plan to offer first time buyers long-term low interest rate 95% mortgages (meaning they would only need to raise a 5% deposit). Yet when someone borrows more than 75%, the banks normally take out insurance in case the buyer defaults and the bank lose money if the property gets repossessed.

 

When the economy is good, the risk is low - so the insurance premiums are also low for the banks – meaning they are happy to lend high percentage loans. Yet, nobody could deny we are entering a period of uncertainty in the coming 12/18 months, meaning the insurance premiums for the banks have gone through the roof.

 

Mortgage companies have avoided riskier high percentage first time buyer mortgages since the start of the Coronavirus predicament. At the end of February 2020, there were just under 400 95% loan-to-value mortgage products accessible for first time buyers, yet today that figure stands at just 26.

 

Another reason for removing the number of 95% mortgages was that the demand for lower percentage loans exploded after lockdown was lifted, and with many mortgage staff still working from home, the banks and building societies focused their attention on getting those (less risky) mortgages sorted first. Therefore, they removed the higher percentage loans from their books, so they weren’t swamped with too much work ... so, one must ask, should the Government take on that risk from mortgage providers in the form of a guarantee from the Government — sparking concern among economists, as the Government is already burdened with a high level of debt – does it really need anymore?

 

Yet taxpayers have been funding a similar scheme for years. The Help to Buy scheme, which allows first time buyers to buy a home with a 5% deposit (and the Government guaranteeing between 20% to 40% of the loan) has been in operation since 2013. Taxpayers are already guaranteeing £16.049bn of loans for 224,133 for first time buyers, and when we look closer to home locally, since 2013…

 

818 first time buyers in Southampton have used the Help to Buy scheme to help buy their home, relying on the Government to guarantee them on average £42,216

 

That means in Southampton alone, £34,532,688 is at risk if those Southampton homeowners’ default on those pre-existing Help to Buy Loans … yet the default rate is quite low.

 

So, should the Prime Minister be playing with the housing market? Ought he instead allow open market forces to be applied to the property market, allowing it to find its own normal and leave the mortgage providers to decide on mortgages based on risk, because all the Prime Minister will potentially achieve is a synthetic rise in property values?

 

Some in fact have argued it would be better to spend that

public money on delivering affordable rental properties?

 

However, in the long run isn’t it better for the country as a whole that British people own their home rather than rent because the Government will have rent to pay for those tenants when they retire if they are on the basic (low) state pension?

 

Personally, I don’t disagree with the initiative, yet all I am querying is, what are the Southampton first time buyers going to be able to buy? The Southampton property market is already quite drawn-out, as ultra-low interest rates have augmented the gap between the first home and the second home, the second home to the third and so on and so forth, so is this initiative  fashioning a massive demand that will inflate property prices up the Southampton property ladder still further and ultimately lead to even more frustration down the line?

However, could this be the very thing that saves

the Southampton property market in 2021?

 

Firstly, with the stamp duty holiday due to finish by the end of March, there are suspicions the property market will stall. And secondly, the very popular Help to Buy scheme mentioned above also finishes at the end of March 2021. This boost instead of fuelling house price inflation could stabilise the property market.

 

In fact, the Government are hoping the property market will help power us out of recession. The early signs are good as the Southampton housing market has exploded as a result of the stamp duty holiday introduced in the summer. It certainly needs to as the country’s GDP only grew by 2.1% in August, down from 6.4% in July, 9.1% in June and 2.7% in May.

 

As a country, our GDP is still 9.2% below the levels seen pre-Covid. With the property market doing well, the country remains on course to leave recession in Q3, yet with the impending triple peril of rising unemployment (after furlough), further lockdown restrictions and a messy end to the Brexit transition period does this mean we are potentially in for an interesting ride?

 

Only time will tell if ‘Generation Buy’ will help save the property market, the economy and ultimately Boris? In the meantime, I think it will be a safe bet that people still need homes to live in … and irrespective of what happens to the property market, with that simple fact, the winners in all of this will be Southampton buy to let landlords.

 

Tell me your thoughts on this …


  CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT HOW MUCH YOUR SOUTHAMPTON PROPERTY IS WORTH

 

If you would like to pick my brains on the Southampton Property Market – Just drop me a line on social media or email me @ brian.linehan@belvoir.co.uk you can also call me on 023 8001 8222.

 

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional and communicative, then contact me to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

 

 

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

 

Blog, http://southamptonproperty.blogspot.co.uk/

 

Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/belvoirsouthampton/

 

Twitter, https://twitter.com/sotonbelvoir

 

LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan

 

Website, https://www.belvoir.co.uk/offices/southampton

Friday, 2 October 2020

The Southampton Property Market Post-Lockdown - the First 100 Days

  CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT HOW MUCH YOUR SOUTHAMPTON PROPERTY IS WORTH


With only around 1 in 5 Southampton house sellers actually selling their home in the last month, Southampton sellers and buyers will need to continue to be pragmatic if the surprisingly strong current levels of activity in the Southampton property market are to be sustained.

 

To start, we had the once in a lifetime event of the credit crunch in 2008, we then had another once in a lifetime event with the Brexit vote in 2016 and now the mother of all ‘once in a lifetime’ events, Coronavirus in 2020 – three once in a lifetime events in the space of 3 Olympic Games!

 

The doom-mongers forecast that the British property market would drop like a lead balloon on the scale of the 1989 housing crash (where property values dropped by 30.87% in a couple of years) but would be nothing compared to the tsunami that was Covid. Yet in the first 100 days of the property market coming out of lockdown, behavioural and economic changes mean that many Southampton homebuyers are now even more dedicated to moving home and the Southampton property market is doing quite well.

 

Going into lockdown, the effect on activity in the Southampton property market during those two months was expectable and predictable as it was placed in suspended animation during April and May. When the Southampton property market re-opened in mid-May, nobody predicted what happened next. Of course, many of us in the property industry estimated some release of pent-up demand from the Boris Bounce, yet nobody anticipated such a ricochet in activity in the Southampton property market.

 

This is particularly interesting when one considers GDP dropped by 20.4% in Q2 2020 (fascinating when compared to notable historic times when it dropped by 13.8% in WW2 and 16.7% in WW1), yet amidst the largest contraction in the UK economy ever in a single quarter, what wasn’t expected was an increase of potential property buyers and property sellers wanting to move post lockdown.

 

Some have cited this boost to the property market on a number of factors. Firstly, we have had the Stamp Duty Holiday, others have pointed at the never seen before 0.1% Bank of England base rates making mortgages cheap, then we had the furlough scheme which protected so many jobs and finally, the pent-up demand from the Boris Bounce.

 

Yet, when one actually talks with Southampton buyers and sellers, whilst all of them cite one or two of the above reasons, all of them mention and talk about how the lockdown has made them re-evaluate and reconsider how they want to live, their work-life balance and where they want to live. This is also reflected with tenants changing their requirements when looking for a property to rent (so Southampton landlords - be aware of this).

 

Demand for apartments in the centre of Southampton has eased off, whilst demand for property with a good-sized garden or other outside space has increased. One question we get asked all the time is also the broadband speeds, although they are quite decent in Southampton (the average broadband in our local Council area being 56.1 Mbps download and 10.6 Mbps upload).

 

So, with record numbers of Southampton properties coming on to the market - is it boom time for Southampton homeowners?

 

Of the 1,164 properties that have come onto the market in Southampton over the last month, only 213 of them have agreed a sale (a percentage of 18.3%)

 

That means around 4 out of 5 Southampton people that have placed their property onto the market have not found a buyer yet.

 

Yes, the Southampton property market is good, yet the number of people who have placed their property on the market has also gone up. Southampton estate agents have never been so busy putting property on the market and I feel sorry for the chap who is putting up all the for-sale boards – his wife hasn’t seen him in daylight for weeks!

 

But that does mean you are in competition with so many other properties on the market (the number of properties coming on to the market typically at this time of the year is about a third to half less). The Stamp Duty boost ends in March 2021, so that means you need to have found a buyer by November at the very latest. By overegging your asking price, to test the market, might mean you will lose out on this hiatus and could end up missing the boat!

 

The prices being achieved for the Southampton properties that have been selling have been fair and realistic and have stood up much better than many were originally predicting.

 

Yet as the country looks forward, given the ambiguous nature of the outlook for the British economy and the possibility that Covid-19 may be with us for a little while yet, I must implore Southampton property sellers to be realistic with their asking price so a greater number of you who want to make the move, are able to do so.

 CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT HOW MUCH YOUR SOUTHAMPTON PROPERTY IS WORTH

 

If you would like to pick my brains on the Southampton Property Market – Just drop me a line on social media or email me @ brian.linehan@belvoir.co.uk you can also call me on 023 8001 8222.

 

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional and communicative, then contact me to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

 

 

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

 

Blog, http://southamptonproperty.blogspot.co.uk/

 

Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/belvoirsouthampton/

 

Twitter, https://twitter.com/sotonbelvoir

 

LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan

 

Website, https://www.belvoir.co.uk/offices/southampton