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Wednesday, 15 March 2017

Southampton’s ‘Generation Trapped’ and the £13.08bn legacy

Last week, I wrote an article on the plight of the Southampton 20 something’s often referred to by the press as ‘Generation Rent’. Attitudes to renting have certainly changed over the last twenty years and as my analysis suggested, this change is likely to be permanent. In the article, whilst a minority of this Generation Rent feel trapped, the majority don’t – making renting a choice not a predicament. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) predicted that the private rental sector is likely to grow substantially by 1.8m households across the UK in the next 8 years, with demand for rental property unlikely to slow and newly formed households continuing to choose the rental market as opposed to buying.

However, my real concern for Southampton homeowners and Southampton landlords alike, as I discussed a couple of months ago, is our mature members of the population of Southampton. In that previous article, I stated that the current OAP’s (65+ yrs in age) in Southampton were sitting on £5.63bn of residential property ... however, I didn’t talk in depth about the ‘Baby Boomers’, the 50yr to 64yr old Southampton people and what their properties are worth – and more importantly, how the current state of affairs could be holding back those younger Generation Renters.

In Southampton, there are 13,833 households whose owners are aged between 50yrs and 64yrs and about to pay their mortgage off. That property is worth, in today’s prices, £3.81bn. There are an additional 13,194 mortgage free Southampton households, owned by 50yr to 64yr olds, worth £3.63bn in today’s prices, meaning...

Southampton Baby Boomers and Southampton OAP’s are sitting
on £13.08bn worth of Southampton Property

These Southampton Baby Boomers and OAP’s are sitting on 47,472 Southampton properties and many of them feel trapped in their homes, and hence I have dubbed them ‘Generation Trapped’.

Recently, the English Housing Survey stated 49% of these properties owned by the Generation Trapped, as I have dubbed them, are ‘under-occupied’ (under-occupied classed as having at least two bedrooms more than needed). These houses could be better utilised by younger families, but research carried out by the Prudential suggest in Britain it’s estimated that only one in ten older people downsize while in the USA for example one in five do so.


The growing numbers of older homeowners who want to downsize their home are often put off by the difficulties of moving. The charity United for all Ages, suggested recently many are put off by the lack of housing options, 19% by the hassle and cost of moving, 14% by having to declutter their possessions and 14% by family reasons such as staying close to children and grandchildren.

Helping mature Southampton (and the Country) homeowners to downsize at the right time will also enable younger Southampton people to find the homes they need – meaning every generation wins, both young and old. However, to ensure downsizing works, as a Country, we need more choices for these ‘last time buyers’.


Theresa May and Philip Hammond can do their part and consider stamp duty tax breaks for downsizers, our local Council in Southampton and the Planning Dept. should play their part, as should landlords and property investors to ensure Southampton’s ‘Generation Trapped’ can find suitable property locally, close to friends, family and facilities. 

If you are looking for an agent that is well establishedprofessional andcommunicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoirlettings.com or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.


Wednesday, 8 March 2017

‘Generation Rent (Forever)’ – 23,698 Southampton Tenants have no intention of ever buying a property to call home



The good old days of the 1970’s and 1980’s eh … with such highlights lowlights as 24% inflation, 17% interest rates, 3 day working week, 13% unemployment, power cuts ... those were the days (not)… but at least people could afford to buy their own home. So why aren’t the 20 and 30 something’s buying in the same numbers as they were 30 or 40 years ago?

Many people blame the credit crunch and global recession of 2008, which had an enormous impact on the Southampton (and UK) housing market. Predominantly, the 20 something first-time buyers who, confronting a problematic mortgage market, the perceived need for big deposits, reduced job security and declining disposable income, discovered it challenging to assemble the monetary means to get on to the Southampton property ladder.

However, I would say there has been something else at play other than the issue of raising a deposit - having sufficient income and rising property prices in Southampton. Whilst these are important factors and barriers to homeownership, I also believe there has been a generational change in attitudes towards home ownership in Southampton (and in fact the rest of the Country).

Back in 2011, the Halifax did a survey of thousands of tenants and 19% of tenants said they had no plans to buy a home for themselves. A recent, almost identical survey of tenants, carried out by The Deposit Protection Service revealed, in late 2016, that figure had risen to 38.4%, with many no-longer equating home ownership to success and believing renting to be better suited to their lifestyle.

You see, I believe renting is a fundamental part of the housing sector, and a meaningful proportion of the younger adult members of the Southampton population choose to be tenants as it better suits their plans and lifestyle. Local Government in Southampton (including the planners – especially the planners), land owners and landlords need an adaptable Southampton residential property sector that allows the diverse choices of these Southampton 20 and 30 year olds to be met.

This means, if we applied the same percentages to the current 61,713 Southampton tenants in their 25,247 private rental properties, 23,698 tenants have no plans to ever buy a property – good news for the landlords of those 9,695 properties. Interestingly, in the same report, just under two thirds (62%) of tenants said they didn’t expect to buy within the next year.

.. but does that mean the other third will be buying in Southampton in the next 12 months?

Some will, but most won’t … in fact, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) predicts that, by 2025, that the number of people renting will increase, not drop. Yes, many tenants might hope to buy but the reality is different for the reasons set out above.  The RICS predicts the number of tenants looking to rent will increase by 1.8 million households by 2025, as rising house prices continue to make home ownership increasingly unaffordable for younger generations.  So, if we applied this rise to Southampton, we will in fact need an additional 10,820 private rental properties over the next eight years (or 1,353 a year) … meaning the number of private rented properties in Southampton is projected to rise to an eye watering 36,067 households.

For more insight and thoughts like this on the Southampton Property Market – please visit the Southampton Property Blog.

If you are looking for an agent that is well establishedprofessional and communicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoirlettings.com or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.


Wednesday, 1 March 2017

Southampton First Time Buyers borrow £277.4m in the last 12 months







Starting with the bigger picture, over the last 12 months in the UK, 1,061,557 properties were sold with a total value of £223.74 bn. To give that some context, ten years ago 1,581,727 properties sold with a total value of £405.56bn, so it can be seen the number of people moving house has dropped by over a third over the last decade
.

Whether you are a landlord, homeowner or tenant, it’s always important to keep an eye on the Southampton property market, not just from your point of view, but also from every player’s point of view. Over the last 12 months, 5,773 properties have sold (and completed) in Southampton, worth £1.487bn. Interestingly the number of properties changing hands in Southampton has also dropped when compared to a decade ago.

It might surprise you that first time buyers in 2017 will benefit from a slight decline in Southampton buy-to-let investors.

Those looking to buy a home in the spring and summer of 2017 will face a far less competitive Southampton property market than the same time of year in 2016, when the urgency to beat the buy-to-let stamp duty hike was in full swing.  

Many landlords brought forward their purchases to beat the tax, and since then, the number of buy-to-let purchases has dropped slightly. First time buyers have taken advantage of that and have increased their buying. In fact, looking at the Bank of England figures, this is what UK lenders have lent on buy-to-let properties versus first time buyers over the last 12 months  …

Q4 2015 - £1bn buy-to-let mortgages vs £1.31bn for first time     buyers
Q1 2016 - £1.35bn buy-to-let mortgages vs £1.08bn for first time buyers
Q2 2016 - £760m buy-to-let mortgages vs £1.28bn for first time buyers
Q3 2016 - £827m buy-to-let mortgages vs £1.42bn for first time buyers

When looking at the figures for Southampton itself, first time buyers have borrowed more than £277.4m in the last 12 months to buy their first home. This is a ringing endorsement of their confidence in their jobs and the local Southampton economy. Those 20 and 30 something’s who are considering being first time buyers in 2017 will find that the number of properties on the market has never been as good as it has for quite a while, meaning you have more choice of properties and less competition from so many buy-to-let landlords than a year ago.

Rightmove announced nationally that new seller enquiries are 26% up on the same time last year giving the stoutest indication that we may see a slight ease in the lack of properties on the market. When I look at Southampton, at this moment in time there are 1,159 properties for sale, compared to 1,042 properties a year ago. All this will be welcome news amongst Southampton first-time buyers with a combination of a proportional reduction in new investors and landlords.

2017 will be an interesting year for all homeowners, be they buy-to-let landlords, existing homeowners or future homeowners.  For more thoughts on the Southampton property market like this, you might want to visit the Southampton Property Market Property Blog.
If you are a landlord or thinking of becoming one for the first time and you want to read more articles like this about the Southampton Property Market, together with regular postings on what I consider the best buy to let deals in Southampton (out of the many of properties on the market, irrespective of which agent is selling it) then feel free to get in touch.


If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional and communicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoirlettings.com or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.


Wednesday, 22 February 2017

1,029 Southampton Households Occupied by OAP Renters

Recent statistics published by the Office of National Statistics show that there are 267,704 private rented households in the Country that are occupied by people aged 65 and older, meaning 4.39% of OAP’s are living in private rented property.

It got me thinking two things. How many of these OAP’s have always rented and how many have sold up and become a tenant?  In retirement, selling up could make financial sense to the mature generation in Southampton, potentially allowing them to liquidate the equity of their main home to enhance their retirement income.  I wanted to know why these older people rent and whether there was opportunity for the buy to let landlords of Southampton?

The Prudential published a survey recently that said nearly six out of ten OAP renters had never owned a home.  Two out of ten OAP renters were required to sell up because of debt, just about one in ten OAP renters sold their property to use the money to fund their retirement and the remaining one out ten OAP renters, rented for other reasons.

Funding retirement is important as the life expectancy of someone from Southampton at age 65 (years) is 17.7 years for males and 21.2 years for females (interesting when compared to the National Average of 18.7 years for males and 21.1 years for females).  The burdens of financing a long retirement are being felt by many mature people of Southampton.  The state of play is not helped by rising living costs and ultra-low interest rates reducing returns for savers.

So, what of Southampton?  Of the 23,195 households in Southampton, whose head of the household is 65 or over, not surprisingly 15,461 of households were owned (66.66%) and 6,152 (26.52%) were in social housing.  However, the figure that fascinated me was the 1,029 (4.44%) households that were in privately rented properties.

  
Anecdotal evidence, by talking to both my team and other Southampton property professionals is that this figure is rising.  More and more Southampton OAP’s are selling their large Southampton homes and renting something more manageable, allowing them to release all of their equity from their old home.  This equity can be gifted to grandchildren (allowing them to get on the property ladder), invested in plans that produce a decent income and while living the life they want to live.

These Southampton OAP renters know they have a fixed monthly expenditure and can budget accordingly with the peace of mind that their property maintenance and the upkeep of the buildings are included in the rent.  Many landlords will also include gardening in the rent! Renting is also more adaptable to the trials of being an OAP - the capability to move at short notice can be convenient for those moving into nursing homes, and it doesn't leave family members panicking to sell the property to fund care-home fees.


Southampton landlords should seriously consider low maintenance semi-detached bungalows on decent bus routes and close to doctor’s surgeries as a potential investment strategy to broaden their portfolio.  Get it right and you will have a wonderful tenant, who if the property offers everything a mature tenant wants and needs, will pay top dollar in rent!
If you are a landlord or thinking of becoming one for the first time and you want to read more articles like this about the Southampton Property Market, together with regular postings on what I consider the best buy to let deals in Southampton (out of the many of properties on the market, irrespective of which agent is selling it) then feel free to get in touch.


If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional and communicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoirlettings.com or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

Wednesday, 15 February 2017

With 61,713 people in Private Rented Properties in Southampton - Should you still be investing in Southampton Buy To Let?


If I were a buy to let landlord in Southampton today, I might feel a little bruised by the assault made on my wallet after being (and continuing to be) ransacked over the last 12 months by HM Treasury’s tax changes on buy to let. To add insult to injury, Brexit has caused a tempering of the Southampton property market with property prices not increasing by the levels we have seen in the last few years. I think we might even see a very slight drop in property prices this year and, if Southampton property prices do drop, the downside to that is that first time buyers could be attracted back into the Southampton property market; meaning less demand for renting (meaning rents will go down). Yet, before we all run for the hills, all these things could be serendipitous to every Southampton landlord, almost a blessing in disguise.

Southampton has a population of 245,072, so when I looked at the number of people who lived in private rented accommodation, the numbers astounded me …



Yields will rise if Southampton property prices fall, which will also make it easier to obtain a buy to let mortgage, as the income would cover more of the interest cost. If property values were to level off or come down that could help Southampton landlords add to their portfolio. Rental demand in Southampton is expected to stay solid and may even see an improvement if uncertainty is protracted. However, there is something even more important that Southampton landlords should be aware of: the change in the anthropological nature of these 20 something potential first time buyers.


I have just come back from a visit to my wife’s relations after a family get together. I got chatting with my wife’s nephew and his partner.  Both are in their mid/late twenties, both have decent jobs in Southampton and they rent. Yet, here was the bombshell, they were planning to rent for the foreseeable future with no plans to even save for a deposit, let alone buy a property. 

I enquired why they weren’t planning to buy? The answers surprised me as a 50 something, and it will you. Firstly, they don’t want to put cash into property, they would rather spend it on living and socialising by going on nice holidays and buying the latest tech and gadgets. They want the flexibility to live where they choose and finally, they don’t like the idea of paying for repairs. All their friends feel the same. I was quite taken aback that buying a house is just not top of the list for these youngsters.




So, as 25.2% of Southampton people are in rented accommodation and as that figure is set to grow over the next decade, now might just be a good time to buy property in Southampton – because what else are you going to invest in?  Give your money to the stock market run by sharp suited city whizz kids – because at least with property – it’s something you can touch - there is nothing like bricks and mortar!

For more views and opinions on the Southampton Property Market – visit the Southampton Property Market Blog

If you are a landlord or thinking of becoming one for the first time and you want to read more articles like this about the Southampton Property Market, together with regular postings on what I consider the best buy to let deals in Southampton (out of the many of properties on the market, irrespective of which agent is selling it) then feel free to get in touch.


If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional and communicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoirlettings.com or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

Wednesday, 8 February 2017

Southampton Unemployment Drops to 6.3% and its effect on the Southampton Property Market

It was late May 2016, The Right Hon. Member for Tatton, Mr George Osborne, published an official HM Treasury analysis stating UK house prices would be lower by at least 10% (and up to 18%) by the middle of 2018 compared with what is expected if the UK remained in the European Union. So, eight months on from the Referendum, are we beginning to show signs of that prophecy? The simple answer is yes and no.

Good barometers of the housing market are the share prices of the big UK builders. Much was made of Barratt’s share price dropping by 42.5% in the two weeks after Brexit, along with Taylor Wimpey’s equally eye watering drop in the same two weeks by 37.9%. Looking at the most recent set of data from the Land Registry, property values in Southampton are only 0.76% up month on month (and the month before that, they had decreased by 0.86%) – so is this the time to panic and run for the hills?

Doom and Gloom then? Well, let me consider the other side of the coin.

Well, as I have spoken about many times in my blog, it is dangerous to look at short term. I have mentioned in several recent articles, the heady days of the Southampton property prices rising quicker than a thermometer in the desert sun between the years 2011 and late 2016 are long gone – and good riddance. Yet it might surprise you during those impressive years of house price growth, the growth wasn’t smooth and all upward. Southampton property values dropped by an eye watering 2.56% in December 2012 and 0.39% in May 2015 – and no one batted an eyelid then.


You see, property values in Southampton are still 9.02% higher than a year ago, meaning the average value of a Southampton property today is £280,550. Even the shares of those new home builders Barratt have increased by 43.3% since early July and Taylor Wimpey’s have increased by 37.3%. The Office for Budget Responsibility, the Government Spending Watchdog, recently revised down its forecast for house-price growth in the coming years - but only slightly.

The Southampton housing market has been steadfast partly because, so far at least, the wider economy has performed better than expected since Brexit. There is a robust link between the unemployment rate and property prices, and a flimsier one with wage growth. Unemployment in the Southampton City Council area stands at 8,600 people (6.3%), which is considerably better than a few years ago in 2013 when there were 10,200 people unemployed (8%) in the same council area.

However, inflation is the only thing that does worry me. Looking at all the pundits, it will get to at least 3% (if not more) in the latter part of 2017 as the drop in Sterling in late 2016 renders our imports with higher prices. If that transpires then the Bank of England, whose target for inflation is 2%, may raise interest rates from 0.25% to 2%+. However, that won’t be so much of an issue as 81.6% of new mortgages in the UK in the last two years have been fixed-rate and who amongst us can remember 1992 with Interest rates of 15%!

Forget Brexit and yes inflation will be a thorn in the side – but the greatest risk to the Southampton (and British) property market is that there are simply not enough properties being built thus keeping house prices artificially high. Good news for those on the property ladder, but not for those first-time buyers that aren’t! In the coming weeks in my articles on the Southampton Property Market, I will discuss this matter further!


If you are a landlord or thinking of becoming one for the first time and you want to read more articles like this about the Southampton Property Market, together with regular postings on what I consider the best buy to let deals in Southampton (out of the many of properties on the market, irrespective of which agent is selling it) then feel free to get in touch.

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional and communicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoirlettings.com or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

Wednesday, 1 February 2017

£24.37bn – The total value of all Southampton Property Market

“How much would it cost to buy all the properties in Southampton?”

This fascinating question was posed by the 11-year-old son of one of my Southampton landlords when they both popped into my offices before the Christmas break (doesn’t that seem an age away now!). I thought to myself, that over the Christmas break, I would sit down and calculate what the total value of all the properties in Southampton are worth … and just for fun, work out how much they have gone up in value since his son was born back in the autumn of 2005.

In the last 11 years, since the autumn of 2005, the total value of Southampton property has increased by 47% or £7.79 billion to a total of £24.37 billion. Interesting, when you consider the FTSE100 has only risen by 30.78% and inflation (i.e. the UK Retail Price Index) rose by 37% during the same 11 years.

When I delved deeper into the numbers, the average price currently being paid by Southampton households stands at £244,542.… but you know me, I wasn’t going to stop there, so I split the property market down into individual property types in Southampton; the average numbers come out like this ..

Southampton Property Market
Average Value of a Detached Property
Average Value of a Semi-Detached Property
Average Value of a Terraced/Town House Property
Average Value of an Apartment
£340,244
£280,929
£211,591
£167,239

... yet it got even more fascinating when I multiplied the total number of each type of property by the average value. Even though detached houses are so expensive, when you compare them with the much cheaper semi-detached houses and apartments, you can quite clearly see detached properties are no match in terms of total pound note value of the semi-detached houses and apartments.

Total Value of all the Southampton Detached Properties
Total Value of all the Southampton Semi-Detached Properties
Total Value of all the Southampton Terraced/Town House Properties
Total Value of all the Southampton Apartments
£5,590,549,164
£7,645,482,735
£4,643,364,495
£6,495,228,282

So, what does this all mean for Southampton?  Well as we enter the unchartered waters of 2017 and beyond, even though property values are already declining in certain parts of the previously over cooked Central London property market, the outlook in Southampton remains relatively good as over the last five years, the local property market was a lot more sensible than central London’s.



Southampton house values will remain resilient for several reasons. Firstly, demand for rental property remains strong with continued immigration and population growth.  Secondly, with 0.25 per cent interest rates, borrowing has never been so cheap and finally the simple lack of new house building in Southampton not keeping up with current demand, let alone eating into years and years of under investment – means only one thing – yes it might be a bumpy ride over the next 12 to 24 months but, in the medium term, property ownership and property investment in Southampton has always, and will always, ride out the storm.

In the coming weeks, I will look in greater detail at my thoughts for the 2017 Southampton Property Market. As always, all my articles can be found at the Southampton Property Market Blog.
If you are a landlord or thinking of becoming one for the first time and you want to read more articles like this about the Southampton Property Market, together with regular postings on what I consider the best buy to let deals in Southampton (out of the many of properties on the market, irrespective of which agent is selling it) then feel free to get in touch.

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional and communicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoirlettings.com or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.