How Did Brexit Affect the Southampton Property Market in 2018 – and its Future for 2019?

A few weeks ago, I suggested property values in Southampton would be between 0.6% and 1.4% different by the end of the year. It might surprise some people that Brexit hasn’t had the effect on the Southampton property market that most feared at the start of 2018.

The basis of this point of view can clearly be seen in the number of property transactions (i.e. the number of property sold) that have taken place locally since 2008. The most recent property recession was the Credit Crunch years of 2008/2009/2010.

In property recessions, the headline most people look at is the average value of property. Yet, as most people that sell also go on to buy, for most home movers, if your property has gone down in value, the one you want to buy has also gone down in value so you are no better or worse off. If you are moving up market - which most people do when they move home - in a repressed market, the gap between what yours is worth and what you will buy gets lower ... meaning you will be better off.

Yet, most property commentators, including myself, suggest (and I have mentioned this before in some of my other blog articles) a better measure of the health of the property market is the transaction numbers (i.e. the number of people selling and buying). So, I decided to look at the 2018 statistics, and compare them with the Credit Crunch years (2008 to 2010) and the boom years (2014 to 2017). The results can be seen in the table below. 

Then, I looked at the average quarterly figures for those chosen date ranges ... and created this graph ...

In the 2008 to 2010 property Credit Crunch recession, the average number of properties sold in the Southampton area were 219 per month. Interesting when we compare that to the boom years of 2014 to 2017, when an average of 329 properties changed hands monthly … yet in the ‘supposed’ doom laden year of 2018, an impressive average of 280 properties changed hands monthly … meaning 2018 compared to the boom years of 2014 to 2017 saw a drop of 15% - yet still 27.5% higher than the Credit Crunch years of 2008 to 2010.

The simple fact is the fundamental problems of the Southampton property market are that there haven’t been enough new homes being built since the 1980’s (and I don’t say that lightly with all the new homes sites dotted around the locality). Also, the cost of buying your first home remaining relatively high compared to wages and to add insult to injury, all those issues are armor-plated by the tougher mortgage rules which were introduced in 2014 and the current mortgage market conditions.

It is these issues which will ultimately determine and form the rather unexciting, yet still vital, long term outlook for the Southampton (and national) housing market, as I feel the Brexit issue over the last few years has been the ‘current passing diversion’ for us to worry about. Assuming something can be sorted with Brexit, in the long term property values in Southampton will be constrained by earnings increases with long term house price rises of no more than 2.5% to 4% a year.

Fundamentally, the question I am asked by many Southampton buy to let landlords and Southampton homebuyers is ... “should I wait to buy or not?”

As a Southampton homebuyer, one shouldn’t be thinking of what is happening in Westminster, Brussels, Irish Backstop, China or Trump and more of your own personal circumstances. Do you want to move to get your child in ‘that’ school or do you need an extra bedroom for your third child? For lots of people, the response is a resounding yes - and in fact, I feel many people have held back, so once we know what is finally happening with Brexit and the future of it, there could a be a release of that pent-up demand to move home as people humbly just want to get on with their lives.

There is little to be lost in postponing a house purchase until there is better clarity on the situation. If it isn’t Brexit it will something else - so just get on with your lives and start living. We got through the global financial crisis/Credit Crunch in ‘08/’09, Black Wednesday in ’92 where mortgage interest rates went from 8.5% to 15% in one day, we got through the worst stock market crash with Black Monday in ’87, hyperinflation, power shortages, petrol quadrupling in price in less than a year and a 3 day week in the ‘70’s … need I go on?

Southampton Landlords? Well, where else are you going to invest your money? Like I said earlier in the article, we aren’t building enough homes to keep up with demand ... so as demand outstrips supply, house values will continue to grow. Putting the money in the building society will only get you 1% to 2% if you are lucky. In the short term though, there could be some bargains to be had from shortsighted panicking sellers and in the long term ... well, the same reasons I gave to homeowners also apply to you.

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional andcommunicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoir.co.uk or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

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Southampton House Prices up 27.0% in the last 5 Years

Over the last 5 years, we have seen some interesting subtle changes to the Southampton property market as buying patterns of landlords have changed ever so slightly.

The background to this story was the recently published set of buy-to-let (BTL) lending statistics. Roll the clock back 12 months and 6,700 BTL mortgages were granted (in the same month) for £900m, meaning the average BTL mortgage was £134,200. Looking at last month’s figures, and as one might expect with the Brexit issue overhanging the property market, the lending figures were down, yet not by the amount I originally thought. Last month, just over 6,100 new buy-to-let mortgages were granted for a total sum of £800m (meaning the average landlord mortgage was a respectable £131,100). Yet, when I looked back to the boom year of the 2014 property market, in the corresponding same month, only £1,030 million was borrowed on 8,300 buy-to-let properties (meaning the average buy-to-let mortgage was £124,100). It seems Brexit is having no effect on landlords buying habits.

Looking closer to home in Southampton, throughout 2018, I have been regularly chatting to more and more landlords, be they seasoned professional Southampton BTL landlords or FTL’s (first time landlords) and their attitude is mostly positive. Instead of reading the scare-papers (oops sorry newspapers), those Southampton landlords that look with their eyes, will see the Southampton property market is doing reasonably well, with medium term rents and property values rising; as quite obviously from the mortgage figures .. landlords are still buying.

The question I get asked all the time is .. “What type of buy-to-let property should I buy?  You can make money from property through both the rent (expressed as a yield when compared to the value of the property) and how the actual value of the home itself changes.

Since 2014, property values in Southampton have risen by 27.0%.

We have records of what each type of property (i.e. Detached/Semi/Terraced/Apartments) has achieved per square metre going back 20 years … and looking back over the last 5 years, these are the numbers ..

They all look to have similar percentage uplifts, however as you can see from the table there is in fact some variation throughout and although only slight this can equate to thousands of pounds in monetary terms.

This has proved that semis and terraced houses have performed the best .. although like the £/Sq.M figures, these are just averages. When investing, whilst Southampton apartments haven’t been the best performers in terms of capital growth, they do tend to generate a slightly better yield than houses, probably because several sharers can afford to pay more than a single family. But houses tend to appreciate in value more rapidly and may well be easier to sell, simply because there are fewer being built.

Now these are of course averages, but it gives you a good place to start from. The bigger picture here though is this - irrespective of what is happening in the world, be it Brexit/no Brexit, China, Trump, whatever, Southampton people still need a roof over their heads and we as a Country haven’t built enough homes to keep up with the demand since the late 1980’s. This means even if we have a short term wobble in 2019 when it comes to property values ..in the medium term, demand will always outstrip supply and prices and rents will increase – because, I doubt the local authority, let alone Westminster, have the billions of pounds required to build the one hundred thousand Council houses per year nationally for the next decade to fix this issue – meaning as the population increases, the only people who can fulfil the demand for accommodation in the medium term is the private BTL landlord.

Before I go …on average, housing associations and local authorities have built around 26,500 houses each year since 2010. The Labour government had a lower average, building about 19,000 homes per year, yet in the 1960’s, under both administrations, 180,000 councils were built per year!

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional andcommunicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoir.co.uk or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

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Southampton Tenant’s Deposits held total £32,669,618

With the Government preparing to control tenant’s deposits at five weeks rent, Southampton landlords will soon only be protected in the event of a single month of unpaid rental-arrears, at a time when Universal Credit has seen some rent arrears quadrupling and that’s before you consider damage to the property or solicitor costs.

It can’t be disputed that the deposits Southampton tenants have to save for, certainly raises the cost of renting, putting another nail in the coffin of the dream of home ownership for many Southampton renters whilst at the same time, those same deposits being unable to provide Southampton landlords with a decent level of protection against unpaid rent or damage to the property.

In fact, the total of all the tenants’ deposits in

Southampton, deposited or protected, is £32,669,618

When you consider the value of all the privately rented properties in Southampton total £7,418,376,504, the need for decent landlord insurance to ensure you are adequately covered as a Southampton landlord is vital.

However, I want to consider the point of view of the Southampton tenant.  Several housing charities believe spending more than a third of someone’s salary on rent as exorbitant, yet for the tenants they find themselves in that very position.  I feel especially sorry for the Southampton youngsters in their 20’s who want to rent a place for themselves, as they face having to pay out the rent and try and save for a deposit for a home.

The average 22 to 29-year-old in Southampton spends 34% of their typical salary on a one bed rental property

….and 45% of their salary for a 2-bed home in Southampton.

40 years ago, British people who rented spent an average of 10% of their salary on rent, and only 14% in London.  Looking in even greater detail, according to the ONS, over the past 60 years the proportion of total spending on all housing (renting and mortgages) has doubled from 9% in the late 1950’s to 18% today.  Whilst on the other hand, the proportion of total expenditure on food has halved (33% to 16%), as has the proportion of total spending on clothing (10% to 5%) ... it’s a case of swings and roundabouts!

Yet landlords also face costs that need to be covered from rents including mortgages, landlord insurance (especially the need for the often-inadequate deposits to cover the loss of rent and damage), maintenance and licensing.  In fact, rents in the last 10 years have failed to keep up with UK inflation, so in real terms, landlords are worse off when it comes to their rental returns (although they have gained on the increase in Southampton property values – but that is only realised when a property sells).

There are a small handful of Southampton landlords selling some/or all of their rental portfolio as their portfolios become less economically viable with the recent tax changes for buy to let landlords, which will result in fewer properties available to rent.

However, this will reduce the supply and availability of Southampton rental properties, meaning rents will rise (classic textbook supply and demand), thus landlords return and yields will rise.  Yet, because tenants still can’t afford to save the deposit for a home (as we discussed above) and we are all living longer, the demand for rental properties across Southampton will continue to grow in the next twenty to thirty years as we turn to more European ways where the norm is to rent rather than buy in the 20’s and 30’s age range. This will mean new buy-to-let landlords will be attracted into the market, buy properties for the rental market in Southampton and enjoy those higher yields and returns … isn’t it interesting that things mostly always go full circle?

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional andcommunicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoir.co.uk or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

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Southampton Property Market – Outlook for 2019

Southampton property values are currently 1.7% higher than at the end of 2017, notwithstanding the uncertainty and threats over the potential impact of Brexit in 2019. This has exceeded all the predictions (aka guesses) of all the City of London economists, in an astonishing sign of strength for the local Southampton and wider national economy.

Nevertheless, the statistics from the Land Registry come after a lethargic year for the number of properties in Southampton compared to the actual prices achieved for those properties.  All this against a framework of amplified political ambiguity and ensuing years of rising Southampton property values that have reduced the affordability of homes in the locality.

The average value of a Southampton property today,

currently stands at £293,200

Looking in finer detail, it isn’t a surprise that 5,103 property sales in Southampton over the last 12 months is somewhat lower than the long-term average over the last 20 years of 7,517 property sales per year in Southampton as the long-term trend of people moving less has meant a decline in the number of property transactions.

I believe locally, Southampton property value growth will be more reserved in 2019 after two decades of weaker wage rises. One of main drivers in the demand (and thus the price people are prepared to pay for a home) is the growth of peoples wage packets. Interestingly, wage inflation over the last six months has risen from 2.4% in the late summer to its current level of 3.3% (which is higher than the average since the Millennium, which has been a modest 2.1%). One of the reasons why wages are growing in the short term is the unemployment rate in the country currently only stands at 4.1%, continuing to stay close to its lowest level since the 1970’s.

However, even though Southampton salaries and wages are rising comparatively higher than they were last year, looking over the long term, Southampton property values are 120.85% higher than they were in January 2002, yet average salaries are only 76.1% higher over the same time frame. This means over the last few years, with average property values so high comparative to salary/wages, many Southampton potential buyers have been priced out of being able to purchase their first home.

At first glance, these stats are actually rather positive during this reported time of political uncertainty and the height of Brexit commotion ... because I genuinely believe that to be the case. The press have always looked for the bad news (well they do say it is that that sells newspapers), and whilst I am not entering into the pros and cons of Brexit itself, the numbers do stack up quite well since the Brexit vote took place nearly 3 years ago.

Moving forward, when taken with the recent reduction in short to medium term number of property transactions (i.e. the number of Southampton properties sold), it should be noted that a lot of this buoyant house price increase has a lot more to do with a shortage of properties on the market rather than an uplift in the Southampton housing market generally.

And we can’t forget that Southampton isn’t in its own little bubble, as there are noteworthy differences across the UK in property value inflation. House prices in London and the South East have hardly risen or even fallen in some places, whilst in the Midlands, North and other parts of the country they have generally increased. 

Looking forward, I would say to the homeowners and buy to let landlords of the locality that I expect Southampton house price growth to remain stable between 0.6% and 1.4% by the end of this year (although they could dip slightly during the summer) ... as long as nothing unexpected happens in the world economically or politically of course.

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional andcommunicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoir.co.uk or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

Blog, http://southamptonproperty.blogspot.co.uk/

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Southampton Homeowners 93% More Likely To Live in a Home with 3+ Bedrooms than those that Privately Rent

The conventional way of categorising property in Britain is to look at the number of bedrooms rather than its size in square metres (square feet for those of you over 50!). My intuition tells me that homeowners and tenants are happy to pay for more space. It’s quite obvious, the more bedrooms a house or apartment has, the bigger the property is likely to be. And it’s not only the tangible additional bedrooms, but those properties with those additional bedrooms tend to have larger (and more) reception (living) rooms. However, if you think about it, this isn’t so surprising given that properties with more bedrooms would typically accommodate more people and therefore require larger reception rooms.

In todays Southampton property market, the Southampton homeowners and Southampton landlords I talk to are always asking me which attributes and features are likely to make their property comparatively more attractive and which ones may detract from the price. Over time buyers’ and tenants’ wants and needs have changed.

In Southampton, location is still the No. 1 factor affecting the value of property, and a property in the best neighbourhoods can achieve a price almost 50% higher than a similar house in an ‘average’ area. Nevertheless, after location, the next characteristic that has a significant influence on the desirability, and thus price, of property is the number of bedrooms and the type (i.e. Detached/Semi/Terraced/Flat).

The number of bedrooms for owner-occupiers very much depends on the size of the family and the budget, whilst Southampton landlords have to consider the investment opportunity. In this article, I have analysed Southampton’s housing stock into bedrooms and tenure. Initially looking at Southampton homeowners..

And now the Private rented sector …

  

It can be seen that Southampton owner-occupiers tend to occupy the larger properties with more bedrooms. This would be expected due to the demographic of homeowners and people that privately rent.

However, this shows there could be opportunities for Southampton buy to let landlords to purchase larger properties with more bedrooms to attract tenants requiring properties with more bedrooms. However, before you all go buying larger 4 bed and 5 bed mansions to rent them out, a lot of bigger properties in Southampton don’t make financial sense when it comes to buy to let.

For numerous years Southampton buy to let landlords have been the lone buyers at the smaller one and two bed starter homes of the market, as they have been lured by elevated tenant demand and eye-catching returns. Some Southampton landlords believe their window of opportunity has started to close with the new tax regime for landlords, whilst it already appears to be opening wider for first time buyers. This is great news for first time buyers .. but one final note for Southampton landlords .. all is not lost .. you can still pick up bargains, you just need to be a lot more savvy and do your homework ..one source of such information with articles like this is the Southampton Property Market Blog

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional andcommunicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoir.co.uk or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

Blog, http://southamptonproperty.blogspot.co.uk/

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Twitter, https://twitter.com/sotonbelvoir
LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan

Website, https://www.belvoir.co.uk/letting-agents-southampton  

Live in Southampton? About to Retire and Privately Rent? You Could be £9,600 a Year Worse Off!

You read the personal finance pages of the newspapers and it all seems to be the impending pensions crisis ... where people aren’t saving enough for their retirement. But it’s not the lack of Southampton peoples’ future pension incomes that are my immediate concern. The fact is that so many of the future retirees in Southampton over the coming decade, who never bought their home in the Millennial years of the 1990’s and 2000’s, will have to make some tough decisions regarding what house they live in when they retire anytime between now and 2038.

In Southampton, there are 2,471 privately rented households, where the head of the household is between 50 years and 64 years of age (meaning they will be retiring anytime between now and 2038). They are working now and easily paying the rent, yet what happens when they retire?

A Southampton retired couple, who currently privately rent and who have paid their fully qualifying NI stamp over the last few decades are likely to retire with the couples State Pension of £1,091 per month plus a tiny bit of private pension if they are lucky. Given that the average rent in Southampton is £1,306 a month - a lot of that pension will be lost in rent. This means taxpayers will have no alternative but to step in and top up the rent payments with Housing Benefit, yet...

The maximum housing benefit for a couple in Southampton is currently £504.96 per month … leaving a significant gap when you consider the average rent in Southampton is £1,306 per month

It is most people’s opinion that retirees are either council tenants or own their home outright. Looking at these figures though, it looks like both these ‘mature’ private renters could be having to make some decisions on their lifestyle and where they live, possibly looking at downsizing the home they rent to make things more affordable in their old age. Also, the government will be in for a horrible surprise as more of Southampton people retire and continue to rent from a private landlord. Numerous Southampton private renters, with little or no savings, will have to rely on Housing Benefit, which will put greater pressure on the public purse.

The average Southampton retiree will need to find £9,612 pa to stay in their privately rented home after retirement

A recent report from Scottish Widows suggested that 1 in 8 OAP’s will be privately renting by 2032, up from the current one in 15.47 OAP’s whom currently private rent (or 6.47%). In fact, in that report they said the equivalent of more than one-third of the whole annual NHS budget would be spent on Housing Benefit for OAP’s in retirement living in private rented property.

What does this mean for mature Southampton homeowners? I see many using equity release schemes to stay in their homes to pay for a better retirement and others more open to downsizing, selling their large home to a family that needs it and moving into a smaller apartment or bungalow ... yet lets be frank - they aren’t building bungalows in large numbers in Southampton anymore.

And for the Southampton landlords? Well with the younger Millennials showing no appetite in jumping onto the homeownership bandwagon anytime soon, it can only result in the demands on the buy to let market from Southampton tenants rising substantially. Of course, many Millennials will inherit money from their home owning parents in the coming few decades, yet a lot won’t as it will be spent on nursing home care and any leftovers (if any) split between siblings.

For those retiring in post 2050/2060, there is better news as official reports suggest those retirees will enjoy a State Pension approximately similar to today’s pensioners with auto-enrolment into top-up private pensions through their employer.


The solution to all this is to build more homes, of course. Last year we created/built just over 217,000 households in the UK, up from a post Millennial average of just under 150,000 households a year. We need to get back to the building booms of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s when on average 300,000 households were built ... but back to reality ... that won’t happen so it looks like we are turning into a nation of renters, which is of course good news for Southampton buy to let landlords!

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional andcommunicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoir.co.uk or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

Blog, http://southamptonproperty.blogspot.co.uk/

Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/belvoirsouthampton/

Twitter, https://twitter.com/sotonbelvoir
LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan

Website, https://www.belvoir.co.uk/letting-agents-southampton  

27.2% of All Southampton Properties were Bought Without a Mortgage in the Last 7 Years

For most Southampton people, a mortgage is the only way to buy a property. However, for some, especially Southampton homeowners who have paid off their mortgage or Southampton buy to let landlords, many have the choice to pay exclusively with cash. So the question is, should you use all your cash, or could a mortgage be a more suitable option?

Well, looking at the numbers locally...

6,522 of the 23,983 property sales in the last 7 years in Southampton were made without a mortgage (i.e. 27.2%)

Interesting when compared with the national average of 31.9% cash purchases over the last seven years. Next, I wanted to see that cash percentage figure split down by years. As you can see from the graph, this level of cash purchases vs mortgage purchases has remained reasonably constant over those seven years...

Next, if you are going to go for a mortgage, the next question has to be whether you should fix the rate or have a variable rate mortgage. In the last Quarter, 90.57% of people that took out a mortgage, had a fixed rate mortgage at an average interest rate of 2.27%, although what did surprise me was only 65.79% of the £1.429 trillion mortgages outstanding in the whole of the UK were on a fixed rate. The level of mortgage debt compared to the value of the home itself (referred to as the Loan to Value rate - LTV) was interesting, as 61.9% of people with a mortgage have a LTV of less than 75%. Although, one number that did jump out at me was only 4.33% of mortgages are 90% and higher LTV - meaning if we do have another property slump, the number of people in negative equity will be relatively small.

Next, looking at the actual number of properties sold, it can be clearly seen the number of house sales has dipped slightly in 2018…

So those are the numbers ... let us have a look at the pros and cons of taking a mortgage, with specific focus on Southampton buy to let landlords.  

Taking a mortgage will help a landlord increase their investment across more properties to maximise the return, rather than putting everything into one Southampton buy to let property. This will enable the landlord to ensure if there a void in the tenancy, there should still be rent coming from the other properties. The flip side of the coin is that there is a mortgage to pay for, whether or not the property is let.

The other great motivation of taking a mortgage is that landlords can set the mortgage interest against the rental income, although that will only be at the basic rate of tax by 2021 due the recent tax changes. Banks and Building Societies will characteristically want at least a 25% deposit (meaning Southampton landlords can only borrow up to 75%) and will assess the borrowing level based on the rental income covering the mortgage interest by a definite margin of 125%.

A lot will depend on what you, as a Southampton landlord, hope to attain from your buy to let investment and how relaxed you would feel in making the mortgage payments when there is a void (interestingly, Direct Line calculated a few months ago that voids cost UK landlords around £3bn a year or an average of £1000 per property per year). You also have to consider that interest rates could also increase, which would eat into your profit ... although that can be mitigated with fixing your interest rate (as discussed above).

So, with everything that is happening in the world, does it make sense to buy rental properties? Now we help many newbie and existing landlords work out their budgets, taking into account other costs such as agent’s fees, finance, maintenance and voids
in tenancy. The bottom line is we as a country aren’t building enough property, so demand will always outstrip supply in the medium to long term, meaning property values will keep rising in the medium to long term. That’s not to say property values might fall back in the short term, like they did in 2009 Credit Crunch, the 1988 Dual MIRAS crash, the recession of the early 1980’s, the 1974 Oil Crisis, the early 1930’s Great Depression ... yet every time they have bounced back with vigour. Therefore, it makes sense to focus on getting the best property that will have continuing appeal and strong tenant demand and to conclude, buy to let should be tackled as a medium to long term investment ... because the wisest landlords see buy to let investment in terms of decades - not years.

If you would like such advice, speak with your current agent or alternatively – whether you are a landlord of ours or not – without any cost or commitment, feel free to drop me a line and drop in for a coffee and a chat.

If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional andcommunicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on brian.linehan@belvoir.co.uk or call on 023 8001 8222.

Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.

Blog, http://southamptonproperty.blogspot.co.uk/

Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/belvoirsouthampton/

Twitter, https://twitter.com/sotonbelvoir
LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan

Website, https://www.belvoir.co.uk/letting-agents-southampton