So all cards up in the air! A general election will be on the books, but one thing is for sure ... whoever gets the job to deal with Brexit has a hard job on their hands (I'm just glad its not me!) As it currently stands, by not assuring the rights of EU citizens in the UK, Theresa May has squandered an opportunity to give peace of mind to our EU co-workers working and living in Southampton (and the rest of the UK). No.10 Downing Street’s point of view is that in promising the rights of EU citizens in the UK, it will postpone the same guarantee to the 1.5 million UK citizens living in the other nations of the EU.
Putting aside the politics for one
second, the simple fact is now Article 50 has been triggered, we have two years
to make a deal with the EU; otherwise it will be a ‘hard Brexit’. Now you might
not think a hard Brexit will affect you in your home in Southampton ... but
nothing could be further from the truth.
Of the 228,459 people who are
resident in the Southampton City Council area, 188,843 were born in the UK, 5,522
were born in EU countries from West Europe and 10,031 were born in EU countries
from the former Soviet States in East Europe (the rest coming from other
countries around the world).
The rights
of these EU citizens living in the Southampton area are not guaranteed and will
now be part of the negotiation with Europe. It is true a lot of our EU next
door neighbours in Southampton will have acquired rights relating to the right
to live, to work, to own a business, to possess a property, the right to access
health and education services and the right to remain in a UK after retirement…
yet those acquired rights are up for negotiation in the next two years.
So, what
would a hard Brexit do to the Southampton property market?
Well a hard
Brexit could mean the nuclear option when it comes to the
Southampton housing market. It could mean that every EU citizen would have to
leave the UK.
In the Southampton
City area, 2,292 of the 5,522 Western European EU citizens own their own home
and (so they would all need to be sold) and 7,953 of the 10,031 Eastern
European EU citizens rent a property, so again all those rental properties
would all come on the market at the same time.
Hard Brexit
and mass EU Migration would mean c. 5,100 properties being dumped onto the
housing market in a short period of time, meaning there would be a massive drop
in Southampton property values and rents, causing negative equity for thousands
of Southampton homeowners and many buy-to-let landlords would be out of pocket.
While there
is no certainty as to what the future will hold, both UK expats in the EU and
EU citizens in the UK rights will no longer be guaranteed and will be subject
to bilateral renegotiation.
All I ask is
that the politicians are sensible with each other in the negotiations. A lot of
the success of the Southampton (and UK) property market has been built on high
levels of homeownership and more recently in the last 10/15 years, a growth of
the rental sector with lots of demand from Eastern Europeans coming to Southampton
(and the surrounding area) to get work and provide for their families. Many Southampton
people have invested their life savings into buying a buy to let property.
Much will
depend on what is politically realistic. Unilateral knee-jerk reactions and measures
caused by a hard Brexit would not only likely cause major disruption or
suffering to the 3 million EU citizens living in the UK, but also everyone who
owns property in the UK ... politics aside - a hard Brexit is in no one’s
interests.
If you are an existing landlord or someone thinking of become a first-time landlord looking for advice and opinion and what (or what not to buy in Southampton), one source of information is the Southampton Property Blog
If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional andcommunicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.
Email me on brian.linehan@belvoirlettings.com or call on 023 8001 8222.
Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Southampton Property News.
Twitter, https://twitter.com/sotonbelvoir
LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan
LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianlinehan
No comments:
Post a Comment